Yankees vs. Guardians ALCS Game 5 Prediction: Odds, expert picks, pitching matchup, betting trends and stats

For the second year in a row, the ALCS game was decided in the last inning. On Friday night, the Yankees again beat Cleveland closer Emmanuel Clase, but after scoring twice in the top of the ninth, they kept the Guardians off the scoreboard and won 8-6. New York now has a stranglehold on the series 3-1.

As has often been the case in this series, the Yankees took advantage of the Guardians' mistakes. In the ninth, Alex Verdugo hit a double-play grounder to Brayan Rocchio, but the young shortstop failed to score, leading to the go-ahead run. Gleyber Torres followed with an RBI single to score the final run for New York.

Juan Soto and Giancarlo Stanton provided most of the Yankees' offense with home runs in the first and sixth innings, respectively. Stanton now has 9 RBIs in the playoffs, leading New York.

Cleveland must find a way to recover and get back into the series or the season will end today. Game 5 is tonight at Progressive Field. Carlos Rodon starts for the Yankees and Tanner Bibee gets the ball for the Guardians.

Let's delve a little deeper into Game 5 and find a sweat or two.

We have all the information and analysis you need to know before the game, including the latest on how to catch the first pitch, the scheduled pitching matchup, current team performance, player stats and of course our predictions, tips & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and our team of experts.

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Game details and how to watch Yankees @ Guardians – Game 5

● Date: Saturday, October 19, 2024
● Time: 8:08 p.m. ET
● Site: Progressive field
● City: Cleveland, OH
● TV/Streaming: TBS, TruTV, MAX

Don't miss a second of the action and stay up to date with the latest team stats and player news. Check out our daily routine MLB schedule pagealong with detailed matchup pages that are updated live in-game with every out.

ALCS Game 5 Odds for Yankees @ Guardians

The latest odds from Saturday morning:

● Money line: Cleveland Guardians (+100), New York Yankees (-120)
● Spread: Guards +1.5 (-175), Yankees -1.5 (+145)
● In total: 7.5

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Likely starting players for New York @ Cleveland

● Saturday pitching matchup (October 19): Carlos Rodon vs. Tanner Bibee

○ Guardian: Bibee (0-1, 3.60 ERA) – Lost in Game 2 to the Yankees, giving up 3 runs (2 earned) on 5 hits while striking out just 4.

○ Yankees: Rodon (1-1, 4.66 ERA) – Beat the Guardians in Game 1 with a masterful performance in 6 innings, giving up 3 hits and a single run while recording 9 strikeouts.

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Top betting trends and insights to know ahead of ALCS Game 5: Yankees @ Guardians

· Teams that won the first two games of a best-of-seven series won the series 83.5% of the time.

· Each of the 4 ALCS games exceeded the point total.

· The Yankees are 4-4 ATS in the postseason.

· Giancarlo Stanton hit a home run every 15.4 ABs during the regular season. In the playoffs in 2024, he will average a home run every 7.5 ABs.

· Stanton averages 1 RBI per 5.8 ABs in the regular season. He averages 1 RBI every 3.33 ABs.

· The Guardians are 3-6 ATS and 6-3 OVER this postseason.

· New York and Cleveland met in the playoffs six times: 1997, 1998, 2007, 2017, 2020 and 2022. The Yankees 4 of the 6 series, including the most recent series – the 2022 ALDS, 3 games to 2. Overall, the The Yankees are 16-12 against Cleveland in the playoffs.

Playoff stories for Cleveland and New York

• Guardian: Cleveland has an all-time record of 64-63. They appeared in the World Series six times – 1920, 1948, 1954, 1995, 1997 and 2016 – and lost six times.
• Yankees: The Yankees want to reach their 41st place^st AL pennant. New York has won 27 world championships. Their last World Series win was in 2009. They have been to the playoffs 57 times.

If you're looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on today's schedule, check out our MLB Top Trends Tool on NBC Sports!

Expert picks and predictions for Game 5 of the ALCS between Cleveland and New York

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Our model calculates predictions for every moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points such as past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we place its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to determine a relative confidence level for each bet.

Here are the best bets our model predicts for Saturday's Game 5 between the Guardians and Yankees:

• Money line: NBC Sports recommends a game against the Yankees on the moneyline
• Spread: NBC Sports recommends a game against the Yankees on the run line
• Total number of runs: NBC Sports recommends a game with an OVER of 7.5 total runs

Want even more best MLB bets and predictions from our team of experts and tools? Check this out Expert MLB Predictions NBC Sports page for moneyline, spread and overall picks for each of the games on today's calendar!

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