WTC End Scenarios – Can India still make it to the top two? Does New Zealand still have a chance?

With only 20 Tests left in the current World Test Championship (WTC) cycle, five teams have a chance of reaching the final. Here's a look at each team's qualification prospects.

India
Percentage: 62.82, remaining games: New Zealand (one home game) and Australia (five away games)

Two shocking defeats against New Zealand mean India still has a lot to do to reach the WTC final for the third time in a row, although they are currently clinging to the top spot with a narrow lead over Australia. To secure a place in the top two in this cycle, India will need to win the final Test of the ongoing series against New Zealand – in Mumbai – and then beat Australia 3-2. This gives them 64.04% points (assuming they don't lose points due to slow overshoots).

Even if Australia wins 2-0 in Sri Lanka, they can still only get 60.53% with two wins against India, while New Zealand can get 57.14% with a loss in Mumbai and a subsequent 3-0 win at home against England % will land. In that case, South Africa would be the only team that can surpass India. A 2-2 series result in Australia puts India at 60.53% compared to 62.28% in Australia (assuming India wins in Mumbai and Australia beats Sri Lanka 2-0).

If India loses in Mumbai, New Zealand can finish with 64.29%, but only with a 3-0 scoreline against England. India then needs four wins and a draw in Australia to secure a place in the final, regardless of other results.

However, India can still finish in the top two with fewer wins if the other teams in the competition fail to maximize their points. For example, if New Zealand loses in Mumbai and beats England 2-0, they only get 52.38%; If South Africa lose one of their five remaining Tests they will finish with 61.11%; and if Australia beat India 3-2 but draw 1-1 in Sri Lanka, they will finish with 60.53%.

New Zealand
Percentage: 50.00, remaining games: India (one away game) and England (three home games)

At the start of the series in India it seemed highly unlikely that New Zealand would still be in contention for a place in the final. But their stunning victories after two of the three Tests have given them a chance to dream. If they win each of their four remaining tests they will finish with 64.29%. That doesn't ensure qualification, but it definitely keeps them in the race. However, if they lose one of these tests, their percentage drops to 57.14%.

South Africa
Percentage: 47.62, remaining games: Bangladesh (one away game), Sri Lanka (two home games) and Pakistan (two home games)

If South Africa win each of their five remaining Tests, they will finish with 69.44%, which will certainly be enough to qualify as only one from India or Australia can beat that figure. After four wins and a draw, South Africa have 63.89%, while five wins and a loss will lower the percentage slightly to 61.11%, which could still give them a chance if other results go in their favour. However, they have a favorable schedule with home tests against Sri Lanka and Pakistan coming up after the second Test of their ongoing series against Bangladesh.

Australia
Percentage: 62.50, remaining games: India (five home games) and Sri Lanka (two away games)

India's defeats against New Zealand have improved Australia's chances of reaching the final. A 3-2 series win against India and a 1-0 win in Sri Lanka takes them to 62.28%, ensuring they finish ahead of India. New Zealand can better that, but only if they win every one of their remaining games. If New Zealand makes a mistake, South Africa will be the only team that can get past Australia. To qualify regardless of other results, Australia needs five wins from their remaining seven games.

Sri Lanka
Percentage: 55.56, remaining games: South Africa (two away games) and Australia (two home games)

With a total of 24 points accumulated from the last two Tests, Sri Lanka has made a strong push towards a top-two finish in this WTC cycle. Their four remaining tests are against two opponents who are also contenders for the final. If they win each of these games and take home 48 more points, they will finish with 69.23% and secure a place in the final regardless of other results. If they lose once and win three, they will finish at 61.54%, which, depending on other results, still gives them a chance of qualifying.

England
Percentage: 40.79, remaining games: New Zealand (three away games)

The two defeats in Pakistan mean England can finish with a maximum of 48.86% even if they beat New Zealand 3-0 in their final series of the current cycle. That won't be enough for a place in the final.

Pakistan
Percentage: 33.33, remaining games: South Africa (two away games) and West Indies (two home games)

Pakistan's home form has recovered somewhat but it is too late to make a difference in this cycle. Even if they win each of their last four Tests, they can only finish with 52.38% and have no chance of making it to the finals.

Bangladesh
Percentage: 30.56, remaining games: South Africa (one home game) and West Indies (two away games)

The three defeats in the last three Tests against India and South Africa have hurt Bangladesh badly – they have dropped from 45.83% points at one point to 30.56% now. Even if they win each of their three remaining tests, they will only improve to 47.92%, which will not be enough for a place in the top two.

West Indies
Percentage: 18.52, remaining series: Bangladesh (two home games) and Pakistan (two away games)

West Indies have already played four series and scored just 20 points out of a possible 108. Even if they win their final four tests, they can only finish with 43.59%, putting them out of contention for a place in the WTC finals.