Winter La Niña forecast updated: Here's what it means for the weather in New York

STATEN ISLAND, NY – Experts have been predicting the onset of La Niña and its potential impacts for months, but the latest report from the National Weather Service's (NWS) Climate Prediction Center shows the weather event may not play a crucial role in determining winter conditions .

To understand how La Niña typically influences weather patterns, you first need to understand what it is. And to fully understand La Niña, you need to look at the ENSO cycle.

What is the ENSO cycle and what effects does it have on the weather?

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a recurring climate pattern associated with changes in water temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, according to the NWS.

The surface water over a section of the Pacific Ocean tends to warm or cool over time. This warming and cooling pattern is called the ENSO cycle by the NWS.

ENSO-neutral conditions prevailed this summer.

ENSO neutral in the sense of the NWS is when none of the extreme phases of the ENSO cycle (El Niño and La Niña) prevail. During such a phase, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific Ocean are close to normal.

Then there is La Niña.

Unlike El Niño, La Niña is a cold event. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), during this phase of the cycle, trade winds intensify and funnel warm water into Asia, ultimately cooling the Pacific waters off the U.S. coast.

During a La Niña winter, temperatures are typically warmer than usual in the south and colder than average in the north. However, as the forecast for the event has changed, the expected impact has also changed.

A weaker La Niña

In September, La Niña had a 66% chance of occurring before the end of November. The Climate Prediction Center now puts this probability at 60%. Although the predicted probability isn't all that different, the Climate Prediction Center also said La Niña will be weaker and shorter.

Despite the changed forecast, La Niña is still expected to occur and remain present until March 2025, according to the Climate Prediction Center.

“La Niña will be weak for most of the winter,” said Paul Pastelok, senior meteorologist and long-range expert at AccuWeather. “A weaker La Niña may allow other signals to dictate the pattern, leading to more variability in the winter.”

The NWS reiterates this statement, noting that a weaker La Niña would be less likely to result in “conventional winter impacts.”

La Niña would normally influence the path of storms and result in a more northerly track during the winter months. With a weaker weather event forecast, La Niña may not have the steering power it otherwise would have.