Will Kamala Harris win the election? AI predicts battlefield conditions

Vice President Kamala Harris is the favorite to beat former President Donald Trump in five of seven battleground states, according to a new model created using artificial intelligence (AI) chatbots.

The data was compiled by Aaru, a company co-founded earlier this year by two college dropouts and a 15-year-old boy. The company created thousands of AI voter avatars using census and demographic data to make them representative of the general population.

Aaru created models for news website Semafor based on “a thousand or more” AI bots in each state. It concluded that Harris is the favorite to win in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while Trump has the advantage in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. If all other states matched their 2020 election results, it would result in the vice president winning the election.

In recent years there have been dramatic improvements in AI capabilities, leading to the introduction of chatbots like ChatGPT and image generators like DALL-E. A separate analysis from Bonus Code Bets, which used ChatGPT to examine all 50 states, concluded that Harris would win with 276 Electoral College votes (270 are needed to win) to Trump's 262. Bonus Code Bets' AI analysis also concluded that Republicans are on track to capture the Senate by flipping seats in West Virginia and Montana.

The Aaru models predicted Harris would win Michigan with 50.71 percent of the vote, versus 49.29 percent for Trump. In Nevada, Harris led 50.25 percent to 49.75 percent, while in Wisconsin she had 50.14 percent to Trump's 49.86 percent. The model gave Harris a narrow lead in Pennsylvania, which has 19 Electoral College votes, with 50.04 percent versus 49.86 percent for Trump.

In Arizona, the Trump model was ahead with 51.41 percent of the vote versus 48.59 percent, while the Republican was also ahead in Georgia with 50.67 percent versus 49.33 percent. Trump also led in North Carolina, the only one of the seven battleground states he won in 2020, with 50.63 percent of the vote versus 49.37 percent.

Overall, Aaru gave Harris a 63.3 percent chance of winning in Michigan, 53.4 percent in Nevada, 52.4 percent in Pennsylvania and 50.9 percent in Wisconsin.

Trump's chances of winning were 73.3 percent in Arizona, 62.1 percent in North Carolina and 61.8 percent in Georgia.

Newsweek contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns via email Tuesday for comment.

The British betting exchange Betfair named Trump as the favorite in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania on Tuesday, while Harris was ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin. The overall odds offered for a Trump victory were 4/6 (60 percent) versus 6/4 (40 percent) for Harris.

With elections underway across the United States, Harris and Trump have made appeals to their supporters on social media.

In a post on X, formerly Twitter, Trump said: “It is now officially ELECTION DAY! This will be the most important day in American history. Voter enthusiasm is through the roof because people want to make America great again.”

Harris posted a 26-second video compilation of her campaign on X with the caption: “Today is Election Day. If we vote, we win.”