Wildcats defeat Cougs

While the Houston Cougars have just two wins in their last three Big 12 games, Willie Fritz's program has yet to play a team as strong as the Kansas State Wildcats.

With the Wildcats playing their best football of the season, my predictions for the Kansas State vs. Houston game are that their punishing rushing attack will exploit the Cougars' defense.

Read all about it in my college football picks for Saturday, November 2nd. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET at TDECU Stadium in Houston and the game will be broadcast on FOX.

Kansas State vs. Houston prediction and best bet

My best choice
Kansas State -13.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at the time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis
Houston has victories over Utah and TCU in its last three games, evidence that Fritz is on the right track with this team. But there is also a clear talent gap when the Cougars play more competent Big 12 programs.

While those two wins were nice, they were outscored 96-14 in their three other conference games against Kansas, Iowa State and Cincinnati. They were shut out in two of those games and failed to cover in all three games.

Well, Kansas State is on a similar level to the Cyclones as one of the Big 12's top teams. The Wildcats are the conference's top-ranked team in SP+ (15th), and that's due in large part to their offense.

Kansas State ranks eighth nationally in EPA per rush and ninth in rushing yards per game (223.3) this season. The combination of QB Avery Johnson and running backs DJ Giddens and Dylan Edwards is deadly and should be a big problem for defensive coordinator Shiel Wood.

Houston ranks just 77th in EPA per offense against defense and allows an average of 203 rushing yards per game in Big 12 losses. And this running game is more explosive than that of the Jayhawks, Cyclones and Bearcats, with 63 runs of over 10 yards per PFF this season.

All Kansas State really needs to do to cover is find the end zone a few times because this Houston offense is atrocious. It is 102nd in SP+ and averages the fewest yards per game (300.4) and points per game in the Big 12 (14.1).

The Cougars have one of the worst offenses in the country, ranking just 98th in EPA per dropback and 107th in EPA per rush. That's not enough against the Wildcats' defense, which ranks in the top 25 in defense in both categories.

K-State allows the fewest rushing yards per game in the conference (96.8) and just 21.4 points per game. This isn't a game where Chris Kileman's team gets caught playing with his food.

I expect the Wildcats to win in the 35-17 range.

Kansas State vs. Houston, Match Game (SGP)

Kansas State -12.5

Over 45.5

DJ Giddens over 104.5 yards

This game total is low because Houston's offense has been so sporadic and the team is only going 1-7 on the over. However, Kansas State's offense is the best the Cougars have ever seen and it should be able to produce the bulk of the scoring this over.

Against Kansas, the total was 45 before the Jayhawks beat Houston 42-14. I think it will be a similar outcome as the Wildcats offense will be just as explosive as it was with Johnson at QB.

Kansas State has reached the over in three of its last four games and has averaged 36.7 points per game over that span. This is the lowest game score of the season.

A big part of Kansas State's strong offense lately has been Giddens. He averaged 132 rushing yards per game over the last four games. He's sixth nationally in rushing yards after contact (657) and 10th in forced missed tackles (47), which should lead to plenty of chunk runs against this defense.

Learn how to place a bet in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Kansas State vs. Houston odds

Kansas State vs Houston live odds

Kansas State vs. Houston opening odds

• Kansas State vs. Houston spread: Houston +12.5
• Kansas State vs. Houston Moneyline: Kansas State -550, Houston +400
• Kansas State vs. Houston Over/Under: 45.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Kansas State vs. Houston spread and over/under analysis

• Kansas State opened as a 12.5-point favorite, with the line changing to Wildcats -13.5 at most sportsbooks.
• The Wildcats are just 3-5 ATS this season while Houston is 4-4.
• The over/under started between 45.5 and 46.5 with little movement in most books.
• Kansas State has a 4-4 record this season but is 3-1 in its last four games, but Houston is just 1-7.

Kansas State vs. Houston betting trend worth knowing

Kansas State has reached the over total points in eight of its last 13 games (+2.50 units / 17% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Kansas State vs. Houston.

Information about the Kansas State vs. Houston game

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