Why we don't expect it to have a direct impact on the Houston area

HOUSTON – Hurricane Rafael made landfall in Cuba as a strong Category 3 storm with winds of 115 miles per hour.

As of 4 p.m. Wednesday, it is moving northwest at 13 mph and entering the Gulf of Mexico.

It is expected to move further into the Gulf and the forecast cone could be a bit worrisome for Southeast Texas.

There are a few reasons why we don't expect it to have a direct impact on the Houston area.

Where is Rafael going?

Weak steering currents allowed Rafael to turn west. This is consistent with what one of the models, the European model, had predicted in recent days.

Rafael should continue to push into the western Gulf of Mexico, but there are some factors that work against it, both in terms of its movement and strength, and should prevent it from having a direct impact on our area.

First, Rafael is likely to become weaker as it moves further into the Gulf. The water is cooler now than it was earlier in the year and will be less conducive to an intensifying storm. Regardless of where Rafael ends up going, it will most likely be a much weaker system when it ultimately gets where it wants to go. In fact, it is possible that Rafael will never reach land as an organized system because it could fall apart in the Gulf.

Second, the steering mechanism fundamentally falls apart when Rafael enters the Gulf. This will allow Rafael to stroll around the Gulf for a bit. This would be a problem if this were happening near shore or on land, but at the moment it looks like it is too far offshore to be a problem, aside from some increased surf and rip currents on area beaches .

Additionally, it appears that a cold front will come into play early next week, preventing Rafael from moving north into Texas.

The bottom line is that it's worth keeping an eye on, but the data we currently have gives us confidence that Rafael won't be a major problem for Southeast Texas, and perhaps not even the entire state of Texas.