Why the Chiefs QB is off to a slow start to 2024

The Kansas City Chiefs are off to a great start in their quest for an unprecedented three-peat Super Bowl win. They are the last undefeated team in the NFL heading into the 2024 season and are on track to compete for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

The most impressive part of Kansas City's fast start? The Chiefs have achieved perfection despite Patrick Mahomes' subpar performance.

Mahomes remains one of the NFL's most talented quarterbacks and has frequently showcased his elite playmaking talent on the run in 2024. However, he wasn't the same explosive passer NFL fans were used to. He also struggled with turnovers and entered Week 8 on pace to lead the league in interceptions.

So, what's wrong with Mahomes and how can the Chiefs fix it to become even more of a juggernaut? Here are the stats behind the signal-caller's slow start.

Patrick Mahomes Stats 2024

Below is a look at Mahomes' stats entering Week 9 and where he ranked league-wide in notable passing categories.

Comp. %: 68.4 (8th)
Farms passing by: 1,651 (16th)
Pass TDs: 8 (T-16.)
INTs: 9 (T-Most)
yards/attempt: 7.3 (15.)
Passerby rating: 84.9 (22nd)
QBR: 66.9 (7th)
PFF class: 81.7 (6th)

Mahomes' rate stats all look solid, as he ranks in the top 10 in completion percentage and QBR while maintaining a rock-solid PFF grade. However, there is a big discrepancy between the latter two stats and the quarterback's passer rating, which ranks 22nd among 31 qualified quarterbacks this season.

The reason for this? Mahomes entered Week 9 tied for first in the NFL with nine interceptions. He has thrown picks on 4% of his passes in 2024, ranking only fourth behind Will Levis (5.6%), Anthony Richardson (5.3%) and Jordan Love (4.6%).

For comparison, Mahomes' worst interception season to date came in 2023, when he posted a career-high 14 picks that year and had an interception percentage of 2.3. At his current pace, he's on pace to surpass his old number with 22 interceptions.

The silver lining for Chiefs fans? Mahomes is on pace to post the best completion percentage of his career and remains on track for a 4,000-yard passing season. If he manages to reduce his ball losses, he should quickly be able to turn what had been a difficult start for him into a strong season.

What's wrong with Patrick Mahomes?

Mahomes' struggles entering the 2024 NFL season can largely be attributed to his inability to produce consistent success as a downfield passer.

According to Pro Football Focus, Mahomes entered Week 9 with 59 attempted passes downfield of more than 10 yards. He has completed 55.9% of those passes for 743 yards, three touchdowns and seven interceptions. All seven of those interceptions were classified as turnover-worthy plays, giving him an 11.9% turnover-worthy play percentage (TWP) on mid-to-deep passes. On similar passes, he had a TWP percentage of 7.7 in 2024.

Mahomes' struggles in the middle to deep areas of the field can be attributed in part to his lack of receiver talent. The Chiefs lost “Hollywood” Brown to a sternoclavicular injury before the season began, while Rashee Rice suffered a torn ACL in the team's Week 4 win over the Los Angeles Chargers. That has forced Mahomes to rely heavily on rookie Xavier Worthy, journeyman JuJu Smith-Schuster and 35-year-old Travis Kelce to run the team's passing offense.

Success has been variable, leading the Chiefs to a more run-heavy approach. They entered Week 9 having completed just 52.1% of their plays, good for 23rd in the NFL after finishing as high as 10th in that category in Mahomes' first six seasons as a starter . Of course, the decline in throwing opportunities has caused some of the veteran's counting stats to decline.

It also didn't help that Mahomes and the Chiefs struggled with multiple safety “shell coverages” in 2024. These coverages – and especially the two-high safety shell – are designed to prevent quarterbacks from making explosive downfield throws against a defense. This strategy explains why Mahomes and the Chiefs had trouble pushing the ball downfield beyond 10 yards in 2024.

It's also fair to acknowledge that Mahomes has had some bad luck in this area of the field. After all, his seven high-turnover downfield plays were all intercepted.

Still, Mahomes needs to improve in this area to realize the full potential of Kansas City's offense. That requires him to make safer decisions with the ball, especially when deciding whether to throw into tight coverage or take shots from the field. More checkdowns may not excite Chiefs fans, but if it helps reduce his turnovers, it would be a step in the right direction for Kansas City's scoring output.

Of course, fixing the problem could be as simple as getting Mahomes to develop chemistry between his downfield weapons. Worthy, a first-round pick in 2024, could prove to be a deep threat as the season progresses. New addition DeAndre Hopkins also brings an experienced, bigger-bodied pass catcher to the team who can potentially create more yardage to support Mahomes.

Mahomes has plenty of time – and wiggle room – to figure that out. At 7-0, the Chiefs are well-positioned for another playoff run and appear to have the defensive depth needed to compete hard in the postseason.

Additionally, if Kansas City can get their once-dominant offense back on track, they will become even clearer favorites to win the Lombardi Trophy again.

Why the Chiefs QB is off to a slow start to 2024

Patrick Mahomes Stats 2024

What's wrong with Patrick Mahomes?

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