Why AP called Ted Cruz's Texas Senate race

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Associated Press explained Republican Senator Ted Cruz successfully defended his seat against Democratic Rep. Colin Allred, based on the incumbent's competitive performance in the state's major population centers, bolstered by his overwhelming majority in more conservative rural areas across the state.

Cruz's victory, which the AP declared at 11:39 p.m. ET, blocked a possible path in which Democrats could have retained control of the Senate by offsetting possible losses by vulnerable Democratic incumbents elsewhere in the country.

The AP only declares a winner when it can determine that a trailing candidate cannot close the gap and overtake the vote leader.

CANDIDATES: Cruz (R) vs. Allred (D) vs. Ted Brown (Libertarian)

WINNER: Cruz (R)

POLL CLOSES: 8:00 p.m. and 9:00 p.m. ET, depending on the state

ABOUT THE RACE:

They face their greatest challenges difficult Senate map For years, Democrats viewed the matchup between Cruz and Allred as one of their only chances to potentially defeat a Republican incumbent and offset an expected loss in West Virginia and extremely vulnerable seats in Montana, Ohio and elsewhere. Cruz first won this seat by 16 points in 2012, when he ran to replace 20-year Republican incumbent Kay Bailey Hutchison. In 2018, he faced much tougher competition than then-MP. Beto O'Rourke gained national attention because he came within three percentage points of defeating Cruz.

Allred, a former NFL linebacker and civil rights attorney, represents the 32nd Congressional District in the Dallas area. In 2018, he defeated 11-term Republican U.S. Rep. Pete Sessions. Sessions returned to Congress in 2021.

Allred has easily outpaced Cruz's spending for the cycle, with each spending about $77 million on the race through mid-October. Cruz entered the final phase of the campaign with a cash advantage of $9.6 million to $2.5 million.

Texas was once a heavily Democratic state, but Republicans have dominated statewide politics since the 1990s. No Democrat has held a seat in the U.S. Senate in more than 30 years. In recent elections, Democratic candidates tend to perform best in the population centers of Dallas, Harris (Houston), Travis (Austin), Bexar (San Antonio), and El Paso counties, as well as along the southernmost border with Mexico. Republicans won by large margins in most of the state as well as in the more competitive counties around Dallas and Houston.

WHY AP PLANNED THE RACE:

When the AP called the race, Cruz was leading Allred by more than 10 points in the statewide vote, with about 76% of the vote coming from nearly every county. The incumbent enjoyed large leads in traditionally Republican areas in the east and lowland regions that make up much of the state. But he also remained competitive with Allred in the Democratic population centers of Dallas/Fort Worth and Houston.

Cruz surpassed Trump's 2020 vote share in those areas, narrowing Democrats' traditional lead there. He was about four percentage points behind Allred in this area, while Trump was between eight and nine percentage points behind Democrat Joe Biden in these areas in 2020.

Allred also performed worse in nearly all of the state's most populous counties compared to O'Rourke in his 2018 run against Cruz. He trailed O'Rourke's performance slightly in Harris (home of Houston), Dallas, Travis (home of Austin), and Bexar (home of San Antonio) counties, but trailed far behind by 15 percentage points in O'Rourke's home county of El Paso.

Allred competed in Fort Worth-based Tarrant County, one of the most competitive large counties in the state. Trump won Tarrant handily over Hillary Clinton in 2016, but both O'Rourke and Biden were narrowly ahead in 2018 and 2020. When AP called the race, Allred was trailing Cruz in Tarrant, but as of 2 a.m. ET he was ahead by a razor-thin margin. thin edge.

To overtake Cruz's statewide lead, Allred would have had to win the remaining uncounted ballots by more than 30 percentage points over Cruz, but he didn't come close to that level in the areas where the most votes remained.

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