Why AP called Florida for Trump

WASHINGTON (AP) — A consistently strong performance from Donald Trump helped propel the Republican former president to victory in Florida, a once-stellar swing state that is increasingly slipping away from Democrats. Exhibit A: Trump was on track to win the longtime Democratic stronghold of Miami-Dade County when The Associated Press called the race at 8:01 p.m. ET.

Trump didn't just improve his performance in 2020 in Republican areas of the state. He gained traction with voters in battleground areas of Florida and was on track to outperform Vice President Kamala Harris in areas considered moderately Democratic. Trump led Harris by 11 percentage points and about 80% of the expected vote when the race was called.

But his lead in Miami-Dade County was perhaps the most surprising — and the most discouraging for Democrats. It has been decades since a Republican presidential candidate won the county, which Joe Biden won by about seven percentage points four years ago.

More than 81% of votes were counted in Florida when the AP called the race. Harris would have had to count 73% of the outstanding votes to overtake Trump's lead.

CANDIDATES: President: Harris (D) vs. Trump (R) vs. Claudia De la Cruz (Socialism and Liberation) vs. Chase Oliver (Libertarian) vs. Peter Sonski (American Solidarity) vs. Jill Stein (Green) vs. Randall Terry (Constitution).

WINNER: Trump

POLL CLOSURE: 7:00 p.m. and 8:00 p.m. ET. Florida covers two time zones.

ABOUT THE RACE: The last time Florida went for a Democratic presidential candidate was over a decade ago, when Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney by less than a percentage point. Voters in the state haven’t looked back.

Once a crucial battleground, Florida's political DNA has been altered by Democratic organizational stumbles and demographic shifts. This culminated in Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis' nearly 20-point landslide victory in 2022, when he secured the longtime Democratic stronghold of Miami-Dade County.

It's not just conservative seniors leaving the north to spend their golden years in the sunshine state who have refocused Florida's politics. Immigrants fleeing a despotic Venezuelan government have been welcomed by the Republican Party in the same way it welcomed Cuban exiles — reliable GOP voters — more than a generation ago.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Party is struggling with candidate recruiting and money problems. Democrats also incorrectly assumed that younger generations of Cuban Americans would naturally gravitate toward the party — a prediction that has not come true. Combine all of that with the fact that advertising is just so darn expensive in the sprawling state with nearly a dozen different media markets, and Democrats are essentially thrown into the political wilderness — er, Everglades.

Consider this: Young voters who will cast their first ballot this year were not alive when the state was the epicenter of political drama during the 2000 presidential election, when disputes over “hanging children” and miscounted ballots swept their way found their way to the Supreme Court. which sealed George W. Bush's 537-vote victory over Democrat Al Gore.

The state is a significant prize in presidential elections, offering 30 electoral votes to the winner.

WHY AP CALLED THE RACE: The AP concluded that Harris had no mathematical path to victory given Trump's massive lead and the number of outstanding votes.

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