Who will win the Senate race in Montana? Jon Tester vs Tim Sheehy updates

Democratic Senator Jon Tester of Montana and Republican Tim Sheehy are engaged in a tough election campaign.

The Montana Senate contest was considered one of the toughest for Democrats in the 2024 election. Tester was running for re-election in a deep red state that voted for Donald Trump by double-digit majorities in 2016 and 2020. While Tester previously won re-election in 2018, during the Trump era, this was the first election in which the Democrat shared the ballot with the former president.

With 31 percent of votes counted, Sheehy was leading Tester with 51.1 percent of the vote, according to NBC News projections.

Polls consistently showed Sheehy narrowly ahead or the two candidates roughly tied, and many analysts viewed the race as one of the best chances for Republicans to advance this election cycle. With Democrats narrowly controlling the Senate by a majority of 51-49, the race has been closely watched as it is expected to help determine which party will control the legislative chamber.

More than $269 million was spent on the race, according to mid-October campaign finance filings reported by the nonprofit Open Secrets. That far exceeded the previous record spending of $160 million, set at the same point in 2020 when former Democratic Montana Gov. Steve Bullock unsuccessfully tried to unseat Republican Sen. Steve Daines. The 2024 contest is also the third most expensive Senate race this cycle, behind Ohio and Pennsylvania, respectively.

Tester, a third-generation Montana farmer, was seen as capable of connecting with rural and often conservative voters despite the D next to his name. During the race, he emphasized his agricultural background as a crucial part of his message to voters while putting distance between himself and national Democrats. Tester declined to support Kamala Harris for president and did not attend the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August.

Still, Sheehy, a Navy SEAL veteran and entrepreneur, highlighted Tester's voting record throughout the campaign, pointing out that the Democratic senator voted for President Joe Biden more than 90 percent of the time. Sheehy called his opponent “two-faced tester.”

In return, Tester tried to portray his Republican opponent as a carpet dealer who had recently moved to the state. Sheehy moved to Montana in 2014.

The Republican was also criticized for his differing account of a shooting injury that was first reported The Washington Post. On the campaign trail, Sheehy said he was injured in a firefight while in Afghanistan, but in 2015 told a park ranger at Glacier National Park in Montana that he accidentally shot himself. Most recently, his lawyers said he lied about the shooting to prevent an investigation.