Who will win the election today? What bookmakers say

As Americans head to the polls, bookies are still favoring Donald Trump to beat Kamala Harris, with the odds shifting in Trump's favor in recent days.

On Sunday, Betfair, a British betting exchange, offered odds of 11/10 for Harris (47.6 percent) and odds of 4/5 (55.6 percent) for a Trump win. On Monday, opinion shifted in favor of Trump: 5/4 for Harris (44 percent) and 4/6 for Trump (60 percent).

On Tuesday, Betfair was once again tipped in Trump's favor, offering 8/15 (65 percent) for a Trump win versus 6/4 (40 percent) for a Harris win.

In a statement about it NewsweekBetfair spokesman Sam Robertson said the vast majority of the money was bet on Trump.

“While his chances fell slightly over the weekend, the odds have moved back in his favor and he is now the clear favorite to win,” said Robertson.

“The Vice President must overcome the odds to win the election, which has only happened once in the history of Betfair Exchange. If she won, she would emulate her rival Donald Trump, who beat the odds to win the election in 2016.

“Going into the election, a total of a whopping £185 million ($239 million) has been bet on the outcome of this election so far, but we're just getting started, as the election draws to a close and results slowly trickle out, we're expecting that more money will come into the market and that the opportunities will develop even further, in one direction or the other.”

A similar trend can be seen on Polymarket, another online betting exchange, where Trump's odds have risen 56 percent to 63 percent since Tuesday. On another betting market, Kalshi, Trump's odds rose from 50.6 percent to 58 percent since Sunday. Harris' rate fell from 50.1 to 42 percent.

Betting markets are becoming increasingly popular as election predictions, but their reliability varies. Unlike polls, which poll voters directly, betting markets reflect the feelings and behaviors of those willing to bet money on an outcome. This approach can provide a real-time snapshot of public trust, but is also influenced by external factors such as current polls or high-profile events.

Studies show that betting markets sometimes accurately predict winners, especially when large amounts of data are available. However, they are not foolproof and can be influenced by emotions or misinformation or distorted by participants who are not representative of the broader electorate. Several betting platforms, including Polymarket, have been influenced by a small number of people placing large bets.

Poll data suggests a much closer race than in the betting market. In an analysis released just hours before polls opened Tuesday, pollster Nate Silver gave Harris a 50 percent chance of winning the presidential race, versus 49.6 percent for Trump and 0.3 percent for a draw.

In the event of a tie, the contest would go to the newly elected House of Representatives, which Silver said would support the Republican candidate.