What Trump's victory means for Ukraine, the Middle East and China

Donald Trump's return to the White House will reshape U.S. foreign policy, potentially promising radical changes on multiple fronts as war and insecurity dominate parts of the world.

During his campaign, Trump made sweeping policy promises that often lacked concrete details and were based on the principles of non-interventionism and trade protectionism — or as he put it, “America First.”

His victory signals one of the most significant potential disruptions in many years in Washington's approach to foreign policy amid parallel crises.

From his campaign comments and his track record in office from 2017 to 2021, we can reconstruct some of his likely approaches to various areas.

During the campaign, Trump repeatedly said he could end the war between Russia and Ukraine “in a day.” Asked how, he suggested overseeing a deal but declined to provide details.

A research paper written in May by two of Trump's former national security chiefs said the U.S. should continue arms sales to Ukraine but make support conditional on Kiev entering peace talks with Russia.

In order to lure Russia, the West would promise to delay Ukraine's long-awaited NATO accession. The former advisers said Ukraine should not give up its hopes of regaining all of its territory from Russian occupation but should negotiate based on current front lines.

Trump's Democratic opponents, who accuse him of pandering to Russian President Vladimir Putin, say his actions amount to a surrender by Ukraine and will endanger all of Europe.

He has repeatedly emphasized that his priority is to end the war and curb the US's consumption of resources.

It's not clear to what extent the former advisers' paper reflects Trump's own thinking, but it will likely give us a clue as to what kind of advice he will receive.

His “America First” approach to ending the war also extends to the strategic question of the future of NATO, the transatlantic all-for-one, one-for-all military alliance that was originally created after World War II as a bulwark against the NATO was founded by the Soviet Union.

NATO now has 32 countries, and Trump has long been a skeptic of the alliance and accuses Europe of falling for America's promise of protection.

Whether he would actually withdraw the United States from NATO, which would mark the most significant shift in the transatlantic defense relationship in nearly a century, remains controversial.

Some of his allies say his hard line is just a negotiating tactic to get members to comply with alliance defense spending guidelines.

But the reality is that NATO leaders will have serious concerns about what his victory means for the future of the alliance and how its deterrent effect will be perceived by enemy leaders.

As in Ukraine, Trump has promised to bring “peace” to the Middle East – meaning he would end the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza and the war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon – but has not said How.

He has repeatedly said that if he and not Joe Biden had been in power, Hamas would not have attacked Israel because of its policy of “maximum pressure” on Iran, which funds the group.

Broadly speaking, it is likely that Trump would seek to return to the policies that led his administration to withdraw the U.S. from the Iran nuclear deal, impose tougher sanctions on Iran, and force General Qasem Soleimani – Iran's most powerful military commander – killed.

In the White House, Trump pursued a strongly pro-Israel policy, naming Jerusalem Israel's capital and moving the U.S. Embassy there from Tel Aviv – a move that energized Trump's Christian evangelical base, a core Republican constituency.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Trump the “best friend Israel has ever had in the White House.”

But critics claim his policies have had a destabilizing effect on the region.

Palestinians boycotted the Trump administration because Washington abandoned its claim to Jerusalem – the city that is the historic center of Palestinian national and religious life.

They were further isolated when Trump negotiated the so-called “Abraham Accords,” which provided for a historic deal to normalize diplomatic relations between Israel and several Arab and Muslim countries. They did so without Israel having to accept a future independent Palestinian state alongside it – the so-called two-state solution – previously a condition of Arab countries for such a regional agreement.

Instead, the countries involved received access to advanced US weapons in return for recognizing Israel.

The Palestinians have been left at one of the most isolated points in their history by the only power that can truly put pressure on both sides of the conflict – which they say further undermines their ability to protect themselves on the ground.

Trump made several statements during the campaign saying he wanted to end the Gaza war.

He had a complex, sometimes dysfunctional relationship with Netanyahu, but certainly has the ability to put pressure on him.

He also has a long history of close ties with leaders in key Arab countries who have ties to Hamas.

It is unclear how he would balance his desire to show strong support for Israel's leadership while trying to end the war.

Trump's allies have often portrayed his unpredictability as a diplomatic advantage, but in the highly competitive and volatile Middle East, which is in the midst of a crisis of already historic proportions, it is far from clear how that would play out.

Trump will have to decide how — or whether — to advance the stalled diplomatic process launched by the Biden administration to reach a ceasefire in Gaza in return for the release of hostages held by Hamas.

America's stance toward China is the most strategically important area of ​​foreign policy—and one that has the greatest impact on global security and trade.

During his time in office, Trump called China a “strategic competitor” and imposed tariffs on some Chinese imports to the United States. This led to Beijing imposing tariffs on American imports.

There were attempts to defuse the trade dispute, but the Covid pandemic ended that possibility and relations deteriorated with the former president calling Covid the “Chinese virus”.

While the Biden administration claimed to be taking a more responsible approach to China policy, in reality it retained many of the Trump-era tariffs on imports.

Trade policy is closely tied to U.S. domestic voters' perceptions of protecting jobs in American manufacturing – even though much of the long-term job decline in traditional U.S. industries like steel is due as much to factory automation and production changes as to the global competition etc offshoring.

Trump has praised Chinese President Xi Jinping as both “brilliant” and “dangerous” and a highly effective leader who controls 1.4 billion people with an “iron fist” – part of what opponents have described as Trump's admiration for “dictators.” “designated.

The former president is likely to move away from the Biden administration's approach of building stronger U.S. security partnerships with other countries in the region to contain China.

The U.S. has maintained military aid to self-ruled Taiwan, which China views as a breakaway province that will eventually be under Beijing's control.

Trump said in October that if he returned to the White House he would not have to use military force to prevent a Chinese blockade of Taiwan because President Xi knew he was “(expletive) crazy” and he would impose crippling tariffs on Chinese imports would raise if that happened.