what a second term will bring

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Your guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world

Shortly before Donald Trump spoke last month in Butler, Pennsylvania, where a gunman nearly took his life, a short video played with images of George Washington crossing the Delaware River during the Revolutionary War.

“When will they ever learn?” the narrator asked in a deep voice. “This man is unstoppable.”

After a commanding victory over Kamala Harris in the US presidential election, in which he won the battleground states and had a clear lead in the popular vote, the 78-year-old Republican is returning to the White House for a second term.

Trump's return represents a stunning political comeback for a man who left office in disgrace in 2021 – defeated by Joe Biden, impeached for a second time and widely condemned for trying to overturn the 2020 election and the attack on the US Capitol on January 6th.

It also marks a new era for the US and the world, reflecting a sharp rightward shift by the American electorate, which has embraced not only Trump's demagoguery but also his nationalist “America First” agenda.

Trump will now feel vindicated to press ahead with the plans he laid out during the campaign: high tariffs on a large number of imports, more confrontational relations with traditional US allies and a massive crackdown on illegal immigration. Trump could also feel free to exact the retaliation he promised his political opponents and test the country's democratic institutions.

“America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate,” Trump said during his victory speech in West Palm Beach, Florida, near his Mar-a-Lago resort.

Throughout the campaign, Trump managed to shed the stigma of all his legal troubles, including a criminal conviction in New York and other state and federal charges.

He benefited from the country's rejection of the policies of the Biden-Harris administration, particularly the high inflation that developed under their leadership, a surge in migrants at the southern border, their inability to combat the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East East, etc. the perception that they are too liberal on social issues such as transgender rights.

Trump also managed to overcome his biggest headwind – the backlash against conservative efforts to restrict abortion rights after the Supreme Court ruled in 2022 to strip women of the constitutional right to terminate pregnancies.

The new right-wing coalition that Trump and his allies have formed in recent months has been fueled by his strong support among male voters, gains among minority groups and a large advantage among Americans without college degrees in general. Left unaddressed were the violent rhetoric, misogyny and xenophobia that permeated Trump's speeches.

“We put together a coalition of groups that didn't necessarily identify with the Republican Party and did very well with them, and that led us to a very significant victory,” said Pete Hoekstra, chairman of the Republican Party of Michigan , speaking to the Financial Times at her party in Novi, on the western outskirts of Detroit. He cited support from members of the Middle Eastern community as well as members of the United Auto Workers and the Teamsters Union.

Defeat to Trump will trigger a major round of soul-searching among Democrats, touching not only on their waning appeal among lower- and middle-class Americans but also on the ill-fated decision to first support Biden's re-election bid and then switch to Harris at the eleventh hour .

Although Harris moved to the political center during her brief campaign, courting anti-Trump Republicans and national security hawks while taking a more business-friendly approach to economic policy, too few voters filled that spot in a country that has become far more populist over the years .

The Democrats must now regroup against the new American right under Trump, which appears to be far stronger than it was after the 2016 election. This now includes an alliance with Elon Musk, the billionaire owner of Be Tougher on Wall Street.

Trump has also grown closer in recent weeks to Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the vaccine skeptic and scion of the famed Massachusetts political dynasty who made his own White House bid before endorsing Trump. He is now in line for a role in his administration.

But even before he sets about winning over the loyalists he needs to fill his government, Trump will revel in his political renaissance. “We have overcome obstacles that no one thought possible,” he said.