We're saying goodbye to hurricane season in the US…but the worst isn't over yet

The final month of hurricane season is approaching. Things may not go quite that way, however, as the southern Caribbean is being monitored for possible late-season tropical developments. Below you will find an overview of the current situation.

The latest in the Caribbean

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) states that a widespread low pressure area is most likely to form over the next few days in the area highlighted below, located east of Central America and south of Jamaica and Hispaniola.

From this point onwards, this low pressure area will be closely watched to monitor activity. In fact, the focus is on how it turns out. If there is concentrated thunderstorm activity, the route of arrival could become clearer. In this case, the actual development of a tropical depression could occur and it would not be an unrealistic situation.

Any possible development would be impossible until this weekend and at the earliest. Patty is the name for the next Atlantic storm.

The spaces this potential system can potentially track

It is important to emphasize that the development of this storm scenario may be slow.

In view of this situation, the NHC has stated that this possible extended low pressure area will be detected only in the current North or Northeast during the next 5 to 7 days. If a named storm eventually grows larger, it is too early to know and it could impact the Greater Antilles in the Caribbean or elsewhere

The wide low pressure area in combination with a separation front can be responsible for locally heavy rainfall, regardless of tropical developments, especially in Central America and other parts of the Caribbean.

At the moment, if we pay attention to some information about who is changing the atmosphere, there are some points that are crucial to understanding this situation. The current atmospheric structure features a lot of sinking air over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, slowing the progress of the tropics. Still, distant visibility of Mexico, a wide sequence surrounding areas whose air rises and falls after 30 to 90 days, will reach almost back to the Caribbean before the end of October and early November

The Caribbean and its usual late season storm location and formation

The possibility of a tropical storm formation continues to decrease as hurricane season comes to a close.

Historically, the area that used to stretch from the Western Caribbean to the Bahamas, as well as the isolated area in the central Atlantic, had the greatest likelihood of named storms forming in November.

In the last month of hurricane season, a storm occurred every 1-2 years as if it were a given. But in the last decade, the last storm of last season fizzled out as early as October 28th and as late as December 7th.

It must be said that no storms formed in the month of November last year

However, what happened in 2022 shows a different situation when the development of Martin and Nicole and their dissipation into hurricanes took place. Additionally, Lisa is also strengthening into a hurricane during the month after developing as a tropical storm on October 31.

The final transformation

In the end, Nicole traveled to the Atlantic coast of Florida as Category 1 and only came 4th^Th November hurricane lands in the country of the United States. This is an extensive record from the mid-19th century^Th Century.