Victory in the US elections could be thanks to this small county in Pennsylvania

“I definitely see a lot fewer Trump signs here than I did in 2020,” said Brandon DiMarco, a lifelong resident of Erie, Pennsylvania, on a park path overlooking the blue expanse of Lake Erie.

DiMarco, who works two jobs and is training to be a financial advisor, voted for Donald Trump in 2020 and had originally planned to vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in next week's U.S. presidential election. But now he's supporting Kamala Harris because of her economic policies and sees signs that others are doing the same.

“I see more people in Erie switching from Republican to Democrat than the other way around. I don't think it's drastic, but I definitely see more people changing their political views on this,” he said.

In one of the toughest races for the White House in modern history, Pennsylvania is the biggest prize in the competition. The fight there is hard – and expensive. Harris and Trump have poured hundreds of millions of dollars into the state and visited it more often than any other battleground.

In this most critical swing state, Erie County is ground zero. Recent elections suggest that a win here wins the presidency; The county has voted for the eventual winner in every election since 2008, including when Joe Biden defeated Trump by just 1,300 votes in Erie.

With polls showing Trump and Harris virtually dead nationally and in other swing states, a few votes in Erie could decide the next president.

Last Saturday, Erie hosted Trump's Vice President JD Vance and Bernie Sanders, the progressive senator from Vermont who campaigned on behalf of the Democrats. Harris' Vice President Tim Walz held a campaign event there on Thursday.

“It's always close, but I'm worried that we're getting a little overconfident in Pennsylvania,” Vance said as he implored supporters at his rally to urge their families and friends to vote for Trump.

Both parties are on site with violence.

After limited voter turnout in 2020 due to Covid-19, energized Democrats see revitalized organizing efforts as their path to victory in the county.

“We are cautiously optimistic,” said Sam Talarico, chairman of the Erie Democratic Party. “With the polls being so close, the only barometer you have is what you see on the ground, and the interest and enthusiasm (for Harris in Erie) is unmatched.”

Republicans in the county are also more organized than they were four years ago, relying heavily on outside groups like Turning Point USA and Early Voter Action, which are funded by Trump-supporting political action committees.

The local party's canvassing efforts also had “more energy” than in 2020, said John Guyton, a Republican volunteer. “We have the spirit. We have the energy. We have the drive. People are excited about participating,” he said.

For Harris to win Pennsylvania, carrying Erie won't be enough. She must chip away at Trump's large majority in more rural counties stretching south from Erie to Pittsburgh while increasing her numbers in Democratic strongholds like Philadelphia and its suburbs.

In 2020, when Biden won the state by just over 80,000 votes, he received 22,000 more than Hillary Clinton in Beaver, Butler, Crawford, Lawrence, Mercer and Venango counties, where Trump won 31,000 votes since 2016.

The red brick streets of Butler, the conservative stronghold north of Pittsburgh where Trump was shot this July, were filled with red Trump signs in 2020.

But this year there are noticeably fewer, and many houses are more likely to express their support for Republican down-ballot candidates than for the presidential election.

“Last time there were so many (Trump signs), but this time there are not as many,” said Jessica Ireland, a Butler resident who plans to vote for Harris.

“I think everyone is just tired (of Trump). He came to Butler twice and was almost killed here once,” said Tabatha Switzer, Ireland’s neighbor who doesn’t plan to vote.

Democrats now have campaign offices across the region, unlike in 2020 when they conducted limited campaign operations in Republican strongholds

“We're pretty confident, but doubt is creeping in,” said Butler County Democratic Committee Chairwoman Catherine LaLonde, who is helping to run a presidential canvass for the first time this cycle.

Farther south in Aliquippa, an industrial city in Beaver County with a large black population, some voters are seeing waning enthusiasm for the Republican candidate.

“There is less enthusiasm (for Trump). But there's also less enthusiasm everywhere,” said Denise Cage, an undecided voter, as she sat outside the laundromat on Aliquippa's main thoroughfare. “There are Trump signs everywhere in Beaver, but there always have been. But I saw a lot more Harris signs.”

But Bill Derrick, a local contracting company employee who voted not for Clinton but for Biden in 2020 and supports Harris, is concerned that the unusual nature of this year's campaign will make it harder for Democrats to maintain Biden's lead in Beaver.

Derrick said: “Trump has his base and they are definitely voting for him, especially after the assassination.” I think because Kamala Harris was late, there are a lot of people out there who say they don't like her so much are inspired.”

Back in Erie, many say the vote is too close to call.

“I feel like it's leaning both ways right now,” said Katelyn Peters, who works at a restaurant in the food hall just off the city's main square and said she didn't know who she would vote for.

Bill Ohmer, an accountant and registered Republican who plans to vote for Trump, said: “It’s very close. Erie is just one of those places where you just don’t know.”

Additional reporting by Radhika Rukhmangadhan