“Very close”: Nevada expert reveals which presidential candidate he thinks will win the crucial battleground

A respected Nevada election expert has released his definitive analysis of the Silver State's presidential race, predicting that Vice President Kamala Harris will carry the state by a razor-thin margin over former President Donald Trump.

Jon Ralston, publisher and CEO of The Nevada Independent, wrote in a Blog post on Monday that he was predicting the crucial swing state of Nevada by a margin of 48.5% to 48.2%.

“It's a simple question: Can Democrats catch up?” Ralston asked, pointing to Republicans' lead in early voting surprisingly accumulated in the state along with a significant reduction in the voter registration lead that Democrats typically enjoy.

“It's really a coin toss, and I know people on both sides who have analyzed the data and can't decide. I've been going back and forth in my own head for days, my eyes glazed over with numbers, models and extrapolations. The key to this election has always been which way voters who don't belong to the major parties break because they want plurality have become in the state. They'll make up about 30 percent of the electorate, and if they move sufficiently toward Harris, I think they'll get there, and I'll tell you why.

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Former President Donald Trump gathered in Raleigh, North Carolina before Vice President Kamala Harris spoke to supporters in Scranton, Pennsylvania, Monday, Nov. 4, 2024. (REUTERS/Brian Snyder/Kevin Mohatt)

Ralston explained that he believes many Harris voters who are registered as “non-partisan” will vote as part of the “Reid Machine” run by the late Democratic Senator Harry Reid, the U.S. Senate Majority Leader from 2007 to 2015 , was brought into being. to help pool resources to maximize candidate support across all ballots.

“The machine knows who they are and will get them to vote. That will be just enough to overcome the Republican leadership – along with women motivated by abortion and crossover voices that this issue will also generate.”

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Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign event at Montage Mountain Resort in Scranton, Pennsylvania, Monday, November 4, 2024. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

Ralson wrote that his previous analysis “concludes that Trump probably currently has a lead of 30,000 raw votes,” but he believes there are “many mail-in ballots from Clark County that favor Democrats that need to be counted,” suggesting that Republican early turnout would cannibalize some of the vote on Election Day.

Ralston added: “I know some may think this reflects my well-known disdain for Trump, heart over data. But that's not the case. I have often predicted against my own preferences; the story doesn't lie. I just have a feeling she will.” You can catch up here, but I also think – and please remember – it won't be clear who won here on election night, so tune out the chatty comments from the Election denial. It will be very, very close.”

A Trump campaign official told Fox News Digital that Ralston's “prediction” was “all wishful thinking” and not based on data.

“The MSNBC employee hates Trump and admitted as much in his prediction. The Republicans are leaving and the Democrats are not in Nevada. The bill is the bill.”

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Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump takes the stage during a campaign rally at JS Dorton Arena on November 4, 2024 in Raleigh, North Carolina. (Chip Somodevilla)

Ralston, who said he has “never missed a presidential call in Nevada,” also predicted that incumbent Dem. Sen. Jacky Rosen would win re-election in Nevada and the Democrats who couldn't run would do well. He admitted that he “botched competitions.”

Nevada and its six electoral votes are expected to play a crucial role in the presidential election in a state where the Real Clear Politics poll average shows Trump with a one-point lead.

President Biden won Nevada by about 34,000 votes in 2020 and Nevada has voted for every Democrat who has run for president since 1992, except for the two elections in which President George W. Bush was on the ballot. However, the average margin in these eight elections is only 4.1 points.