US presidential election 2024: Allan Lichtman, the “Election Nostradamus”, is feeling the pressure, but cannot be dissuaded from Kamala Harris’ victory prediction

The American university professor Dr. Allan Lichtman, known for his perfect election predictions, stands by his prediction that Kamala Harris will win the upcoming election. Lichtman, who originally made this prediction on September 5, stated that nothing has changed that would change his forecast.

During a livestream on Tuesday, Lichtman expressed concern about the future of the country, not the election polls. “Of course I'm worried. “Not because of the polls, but mostly because I’m worried about the future of this country,” Lichtman said.

“I’ve been doing this for 42 years and every four years I get butterflies in my stomach,” he said. “I think I have a flock of crows in my stomach this year.”

Using his “Keys to the White House” analysis, Lichtman evaluates 13 specific categories. According to his analysis, Harris has an advantage in eight of the 13 categories compared to President Donald Trump's three. He acknowledged the possibility of error but described it as unlikely. “But it’s always possible that something so catastrophic and unprecedented could change the course of history.”

Lichtman has been predicting election results with high accuracy for over 42 years. He emphasized that his system, based on objective and quantitative indicators, is always reliable. “My predictions have been proven, my indicators have always been correct,” he said.

Lichtman, a registered Democrat, recently canceled his subscription to The Washington Post after the paper decided not to endorse a candidate. He noted that this year's election scare is unprecedented and draws comparison to previous elections. “There is more election anxiety this year than ever before, and I return to Kennedy-Nixon,” he noted. Lichtman also revealed that he faced unprecedented hostility for predicting Harris' victory. “I have never experienced anything like the hate I received this time,” he told NewsNation’s Chris Cuomo. “I have received feedback that is vulgar, violent and threatening, and even beyond that, the safety of my family has been compromised.”

Who is Allan Lichtman?

Allan Lichtman is a renowned political historian and election forecaster best known for his Key to the White House forecasting model. Lichtman was born in 1947 and is currently Distinguished Professor at American University in Washington, DC, where he taught for many years. He earned a Ph.D. in modern American history and quantitative methods from Harvard University.

Lichtman's prediction system, developed in 1981 with Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, evaluates thirteen “keys” to determine the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. Each key is a true-or-false statement about the strength and performance of the incumbent party. If six or more statements are false, the challenging party will likely win; If five or fewer are incorrect, the incumbent party is predicted to win. This model has correctly predicted the popular vote outcome in every presidential election since 1984, except for the controversial 2000 election in which George W. Bush defeated Al Gore in the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote.

What are the 13 keys to the White House?

• Incumbent Party's Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party has more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm election (False).
• No serious competition: There is no serious competition for the incumbent party's nomination (Correct).
• Incumbent Candidacy: The party's incumbent candidate is the incumbent President (False).
• No third-party challenge: There is no significant third-party challenger (True).
• Strong Short-Term Economy: The short-term economy is strong (correct).
• Strong Long-Term Economy: Long-term economic growth has been as good as it has been in the last two terms (correct).
• Major policy change: The incumbent party has made major changes in national politics (correct).
• Social unrest: There is no ongoing social unrest (correct).
• No scandals: The government is free from scandals (True).
• No major foreign policy/military failure: The government does not suffer any major foreign policy or military failure (leans False).
• Major Foreign/Military Success: The government achieves a major foreign or military success (Leans True).
• Incumbent Charisma: The incumbent party's candidate is charismatic or a national hero (false).
• Challenger Charisma: The challenging party candidate is neither charismatic nor a national hero (correct).

According to Lichtman, if at least eight of these keys are in favor of the incumbent party, the incumbent party is more likely to retain the White House. For the 2024 election cycle, Lichtman's analysis suggests that at least eight key factors are in favor of the Democratic Party, making Vice President Kamala Harris the projected winner of this model if she runs.