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    Tropical Storm Rafael strengthens into a hurricane. Impact on Florida
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    Tropical Storm Rafael strengthens into a hurricane. Impact on Florida

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    Tropical Storm Rafael is expected to strengthen into a hurricane before hitting Cuba on Wednesday.

    Afterwards, Rafael will move to the Gulf of Mexico. While current forecasts suggest the storm is heading toward the northern Gulf Coast, Florida could still feel some impacts even without landfall.

    ➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Rafael

    ➤ Weather warnings via SMS: Sign up to receive updates on current storms and weather events by location

    A tropical storm warning has been issued for the lower and central Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center.

    Tropical storms could reach the lower and central Florida Keys on Wednesday. Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches could reach these areas during the middle to later part of the week.

    According to the National Weather Service, a high risk of rip currents remains in Okaloosa County through late Saturday.

    “It is still too early to know whether rain and/or wind impacts will occur later this week as there is currently very little confidence as to where this system will ultimately travel as it moves through the central Gulf,” wrote the Okaloosa County government said in a Facebook post Monday evening.

    Tropical Storm Rafael: What you need to know

    • Location: 80 miles south-southwest of Montego Bay, Jamaica
    • Maximum continuous winds: 60 miles per hour
    • Movement: Northwest at 13 miles per hour
    • Pressure: 993MB
    • Next note: 10 O `clock

    Watches and Warnings throughout Florida and the Caribbean

    For an explanation of the meaning of the watches and warnings, scroll to the end of this story.

    Hurricane warning:

    • Cayman Islands
    • Cuban provinces Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas and the Island of Youth

    Tropical Storm Watch:

    • Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas
    • Lower and middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge
    • Dry Tortugas

    Tropical Storm Warning:

    • Jamaica
    • Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus and Ciego de Avila

    How strong is Tropical Storm Rafael and where is it heading?

    As of 7 a.m. EST, the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was near latitude 17.4 north and longitude 78.4 west.

    Rafael is moving northwest at about 13 miles per hour. Movement generally northwest is expected over the next few days. According to the forecast, the storm is expected to move near Jamaica this morning, near or over the Cayman Islands this evening, and near or over western Cuba on Wednesday.

    ➤ Tracker, satellite images of Tropical Storm Rafael

    Maximum sustained winds will be around 60 mph, with higher gusts.

    Steady to rapid intensification is forecast over the next 24 to 36 hours, and Rafael is expected to strengthen into a hurricane in the northwest Caribbean near the Cayman Islands and continue to strengthen before making landfall in Cuba.

    Tropical storm force winds extend up to 105 miles from the center.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb.

    Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Rafael

    Special note on spaghetti models: The figures cover a range of forecasting tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center only uses the four or five best-performing models in its forecasts.

    ➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Rafael

    Where will Tropical Storm Rafael make landfall?

    “The highest chance of landfall is along the central Louisiana coast,” AccuWeather said.

    “However, since steering breezes may change somewhat later this week and this weekend due to the approach of a non-tropical storm from the southern United States, there is a wide window for where landfall will occur.”

    “This potential landfall zone extends from the Florida Panhandle to the Texas coast.”

    Impact of Tropical Storm Rafael on Florida

    “The good news is that while Rafael could enter the Gulf as a hurricane by midweek, the likelihood of a storm is very low to reach “Land like a hurricane,” said Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger. Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.

    For the Florida peninsula, Rafael will reach closest approach late Wednesday and Thursday.

    “As the storm strengthens through Wednesday, it will likely pass a little closer to Florida, but in all scenarios it should remain well southwest of the Keys,” Truchelut said.

    “The main impact of the storm on Florida will be an increase in the chance of rain between Wednesday and the weekend.”

    According to the National Hurricane Center, tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica through early afternoon, developing on Wednesday in parts of west-central Cuba, possibly further east in central Cuba and the lower and central Florida Keys.

    ➤ Florida Hurricane Forecast: With rumblings in Rafael, the storm-hit state was only expected to rain

    During the middle to end of the week, heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the southeastern United States. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the lower and central Florida Keys.

    A few tornadoes are possible across the Keys and southwest mainland Florida on Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

    Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Tropical Storm Rafael

    1. Rafael is forecast to reach hurricane intensity by tonight as it passes near or over the Cayman Islands, where damaging hurricane-force winds, a dangerous storm surge and destructive waves are expected. Rafael was scheduled to reach western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. A hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where a dangerous storm surge and destructive waves are also expected.
    2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica through early afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the lower and central Florida Keys beginning late Wednesday or Wednesday evening.
    3. It is too early to determine what impact, if any, Rafael might have on parts of the northern Gulf Coast. Residents in this area should regularly monitor weather forecast updates.
    4. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain to parts of the western Caribbean, including the islands of Jamaica and the Caymans, and southern and western parts of Cuba, through early Thursday. Flash floods and mudslides are possible in higher elevations in Jamaica and Cuba. Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the southeastern United States by mid to late week.

    Current forecast: How strong could Tropical Storm Rafael get?

    • From 4 a.m.: 60 miles per hour
    • 12 hours: 70 miles per hour
    • 24 hours: 80 miles per hour
    • 36 hours: 90 miles per hour
    • 48 hours: 90 miles per hour
    • 60 hours: 90 miles per hour
    • 72 hours: 85 miles per hour
    • 96 hours: 70 miles per hour
    • 120 hours: 50 miles per hour

    What impacts could Tropical Storm Rafael have and which areas could be affected?

    wind: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands through this afternoon and also in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday.

    Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica through early afternoon, expected Wednesday in parts of west-central Cuba, possibly further east in central Cuba and the lower and central Florida Keys.

    Amount of precipitation: Heavy rains will impact areas of the western Caribbean through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands into southern and western parts of Cuba, where rainfall amounts between 3 and 6 inches are expected.

    Higher totals of up to 10 inches are expected in isolated areas of Jamaica and Cuba, which could lead to flash floods and mudslides.

    ➤ Forecasting excessive rainfall

    During the middle to end of the week, heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the southeastern United States. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the lower and central Florida Keys.

    Storm surge: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica tonight. A storm surge could raise water levels 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and up to 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in certain areas, from onshore winds along Cuba's southern coast in the hurricane warning area , including the Isle of Youth.

    The combination of storm surge and high tide causes normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising water moving inland from the coast. The water could reach the following heights above ground anywhere in the indicated areas if the peak rise occurs at the time of high tide:

    • Dry Tortugas: 1-3 feet
    • Lower Florida Keys: 1-2 feet

    Tornadoes: A few tornadoes are possible over the Keys and southwest mainland Florida on Wednesday.

    Surfing: Waves generated by Rafael are expected to impact much of the western Caribbean over the next few days. These waves can create life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

    Interactive Map: What tropical storms and hurricanes have hit your area in the past?

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    What's next?

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    Jim Ross contributed to this report

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