Tropical Storm Rafael could form today and head toward Florida

The National Hurricane Center has predicted a possible tropical storm that could form today and head toward Florida.

The storm is known as Potential Tropical Cyclone 18, but will be named Storm Rafael if it strengthens into a tropical storm.

In its bulletin at 10 p.m. ET on Sunday, the National Hurricane Center reported that the current disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical storm on Monday evening as it passes near Jamaica.

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The low pressure system is forecast to develop into a hurricane in the northwest Caribbean by Tuesday, hitting the Cayman Islands and parts of Cuba.

While winds are unlikely to reach hurricane strength when they hit the U.S., warnings are that the system is likely to bring heavy rain to parts of the western Caribbean by midweek, then extending north into Florida and adjacent areas could spread to the southeast of the United States.

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Newsweek has reached out to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for comment.

In its advisory, the National Hurricane Center also warned that those interested in the Florida Keys should keep a close eye on Rafael, as hurricane and tropical storm watches may be required in the Keys today.

In an X post (formerly Twitter), the National Weather Service for Tampa Bay explained what the storm could mean for Florida. The NWS said: “It (the storm) will reach the Gulf by midweek with increasing rain chances and a 10-20% chance of tropical storm-force winds in coastal areas, although the core of the storm may remain far enough offshore to form a stronger storm.” to prevent.” Wind danger.”

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In another post, NWS Miami and South Florida warned that potential Tropical Cyclone 18's “developing pressure gradient” would likely lead to “windy days for South Florida with continued hazardous ocean and beach conditions.”

Bernie Rayno, AccuWeather's chief on-air meteorologist, explained the possibilities for Rafael:

“Future developments will depend on the movement of a depression in the jet stream more than 1,000 miles away over the US next week,” he added.

“If this jet stream tilt advances far enough east, it will tend to trap the tropical structure and potentially drag it across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and into southern Florida.

“But if the dip of the jet stream lags westward, the tropical structure could advance into the western or central Gulf of Mexico, where it could threaten areas to the west such as Louisiana or Texas. “There is also a possibility that it will continue due west and decrease over southern Mexico,” Rayno said.

The Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30th. The unusually high activity at the end of the season is due to the near record-breaking water temperatures in the Atlantic basin for this time of year.

Storms in November are rare, but not impossible. According to records, only four hurricanes struck the United States in the penultimate month of the year.

Hurricane Nicole last hit Florida in November 2022 as a Category 1 storm.