Tropical Storm Patty could form in a few days

Meteorologists report that a weather system currently raging in the Atlantic has a high chance of developing into Tropical Storm Patty within the next seven days.

Meteorologists are monitoring the disturbance, which will grow stronger as it spreads north and could impact parts of the Caribbean and possibly the northeastern United States.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) announced this in an update on Wednesday
It is likely that an extensive low pressure area will develop above it
Southwest Caribbean Sea in the next few days.

The update said: “Gradual development is possible thereafter and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week as the system drifts generally northward over the central or western Caribbean Sea.”

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) believes favorable atmospheric conditions could allow the system to intensify, with a 40 percent chance of becoming a tropical storm within the next seven days.

However, AccuWeather designated the Caribbean area as a potential development zone well ahead of the NHC and currently rates it as high risk (likely development) instead of the NHC's medium risk of 40 percent.

Newsweek reached out to NOAA via email for comment.

“As November begins, the focus of tropical development shifts closer to the United States. “Typically, the centers of gravity are in the Caribbean and off the southeast coast toward the end of the season,” said Alex DaSilva, senior hurricane expert at AccuWeather.

“From the end of this week to early next week, atmospheric conditions will be very favorable for development in the central Caribbean. Very warm water combined with low wind shear can enable development,” DaSilva explained.

DaSilva told it before Newsweek that based on current atmospheric conditions, he doubts the next storm will move west when it forms.

Storms that form this late in the season either move westward, over Central America, like Tropical Storm Nadine last week, or eastward, toward Cuba.

The Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, has been particularly active this year, consistent with long-term forecasts of warmer ocean temperatures and increased storm frequency.

If it forms, Tropical Storm Patty will be among the last systems expected this season, but forecasters warn that late-season storms can still have a significant impact.

“Storms in the Caribbean typically move north or northeast in November. This means residents and visitors from Florida, including the Gulf Coast, to the Carolinas will need to keep a close eye on developments,” DaSilva said.

“Even if a tropical storm forms and moves toward Mexico or Central America, changing steering winds can turn that storm northeast and later toward Florida.”

If the system strengthens as expected, it will be the 16th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

Authorities will continue to monitor the storm's development and those concerned with its potential path are encouraged to stay informed via local news channels and weather alerts.