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Tropical influx from the Gulf of Mexico fueling downpours in Florida

Tropical influx from the Gulf of Mexico fueling downpours in Florida

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MIAMI – The FOX Forecast Center is monitoring the Gulf of Mexico, where an area of ​​unsettled weather is expected to produce a few windy days similar to the Northeast with gusty winds, heavy rains and rough seas in Florida.

The wet weather is associated with an extensive low pressure area known as the Central American Gyre, which will send clouds of moisture toward the Sunshine State. Next week there could be 10 to 15 centimeters of rainfall over a widespread area, which could lead to isolated flooding where rainfall repeatedly moves over the same area.

The National Hurricane Center has highlighted the Gulf of Mexico as having a moderate chance of development next week.

The Prospects for an Area to Watch in the Gulf of Mexico.
(FOX Weather)

“In other words, the entire Gulf of Mexico is in the area where it is developing or what it will look like.” FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said. “It’s impossible to say at this point because different computer forecasters have very different ideas.”

Sea surface temperatures are warm enough for tropical development, but the FOX Forecast Center warns that hostile high-altitude winds will help keep significant development at bay next week.

The death toll rises to over 200 a week after Helene decimated southeastern communities

How much rain is expected?

Forecast models show the heaviest precipitation is expected to come from the Interstate 4 corridor and farther south, where 4 to 6 inches of rain could fall over a widespread area next week.

Since much of the rain will be spread over several days, widespread flooding is not expected. However, if repeated thunderstorms hit the same region, problems could arise.

The precipitation forecast for Florida.
(FOX Weather)

The region expected to be affected is further south of where Hurricane Helene made landfall last week, so the hardest-hit areas of the Big Bend will not receive as much rainfall as places like Fort Myers, Orlando, Tampa and Miami.

“We will see rain across much of the Florida Peninsula at least late this weekend and into next week,” Norcross said. “And we’re paying attention to the possibility of more southerly development and seeing what happens with that.”

In addition to rainfall, rough seas will lead to the risk of increased currents and erosion on beaches – a pattern that will continue well into next week.

FLORIDA ALLIGATOR FINDS A BREAK TO SUN ON THE BEACH IN RAINY WEATHER

Rainfall so far this year is different from the Gulf Coast average.
(FOX Weather)

If there is no tropical development, is hurricane season over?

If a tropical cyclone – be it a tropical depression, a tropical storm or a hurricane – does not form from the current severe weather area, that does not mean that the hurricane season for the eastern Gulf of Mexico is over.

Waters in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf remain sufficiently warm for development, and October is typically the busiest month for landings in South Florida.

According to NOAA historical data, more than 60% of landfalls in the region occur after the climatological peak of the hurricane season, September 10th.

The latest date a hurricane has ever hit the Sunshine State is November 21, when Hurricane Kate hit the Florida Panhandle in 1985.

The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor Hurricane Kirk in the central Atlantic and Tropical Storm Leslie in the eastern Atlantic, but neither poses an immediate threat to landmasses over the next week.

There is also a new disturbance off the coast of Africa that is being tracked.

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