Tigers win Game 3 behind strong bullpen performance

If you're into relief pitching and pinch-hitting, Game 3 of the ALDS between the Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers is for you. On the surface, it was pretty straightforward, a low-scoring affair with good pitching and a few timely hits. But look beneath the surface and you'll see that it was a pretty strange game, one that would be difficult to explain (not in a derogatory way!) to casual gamers. Why was a healthy hitter pulled before he got a hit? Why was one of the Tigers' biggest offensive threats shut down in the fifth inning? It was truly a dream game if you enjoy talking about the intricacies of baseball with your friends. And lucky for me, you are all my friends today.

Let's clear up a few details before diving into some of the nerdier aspects of Wednesday's game. The Tigers won 3-0 to take a 2-1 lead over their division rivals. Just as he has in recent months, AJ Hinch relied on his bullpen, a unit that posted a 3.00 ERA in the second half (fourth in the game) as the Tigers posted the best record in the American League during that time. They put in another superlative performance, and now his team has a chance to close out a playoff series at home on Thursday night. Imagine telling Tigers fans that this was possible in July!

There are 26 players on each of these flawed but entertaining AL Central rosters. Realistically, four of those 52 players (the starters from Games 1 and 2) wouldn't appear in Game 3 unless it was a ton of innings, leaving 48 players who could potentially be used. The Tigers used six pitchers and the Guardians used seven. Both teams used three pinch hitters, while the Guardians also used Austin Hedges as a defensive replacement (he ended up getting one at-bat), resulting in a total of seven substitutions between the two teams. Add these hurlers and pinch hitters to each team's starting lineup, and you end up with a whopping 38 players! Not quite every player, but for a nine innings game that's a lot! And all this mixing and matching gave a fascinating dimension to the game of chess, particularly pinch-hitting.

The first of these steps came surprisingly early. After right-hander Keider Montero was named the starter for Detroit, Will Brennan was given the starting job in right field for the Guardians. Montero pitched a flawless first inning, after which Hinch turned to left-hander Brant Hurter to serve as the bulk guy. (Hurter excelled in this role in August and September, appearing in ten games and pitching in at least four innings as a reliever six times.) With his right fielder wanting to face Hurter at least once, Stephen Vogt moved his first chess piece before Brennan got a chance to hit and brought Jhonkensy Noel and his 165 wRC+ (in 63 plate appearances) against lefties into the game.

Things didn't go as Vogt had hoped. On his first shot against Hurter, Noel chased a changeup out of the zone and ultimately flew out of bounds. On his second pass, he hit an absolutely red sinker, but only managed a 93 mph lineout from a can of corn. Noel even got a third chance against a lefty when he faced Tyler Holton in the ninth; As he did in the second, he chased a changeup out of the zone, this time getting an easy groundout to third. As good as Noel has been against southpaws this season (albeit in a small selection), he has been extremely vulnerable to chases against left-wing shifts. Of the 43 out-of-zone changeups he saw from lefties in 2024, he completed a whopping 28 (65.1%). This is very bad! Holton seemed to be well aware of this, as he implemented a clear plan with substitutions primarily in the low and distant areas:

So how would we judge Vogt's move? In terms of results, it obviously didn't work out – Noel was given three chances and didn't take advantage of them – but it's better to judge the process. Noel had success against lefties while Brennan struggled (.198 wOBA and 20 wRC+ in 127 career PA against lefties). Managers must make decisions that give their team the best chance of winning. This appeared to be one of those decisions, but the lefties Noel faced were able to use their changes to fill a clear gap in his approach. As with any game of chess, there is always a move in response to your move. A lot of it just comes down to execution, and the Tigers did a better job in several aspects of the game, including some timely hits.

It started at the top with Parker Meadows. I really liked the way Meadows played this postseason. He can swing well, has good shots and plays good defense. He led off Game 3 against Alex Cobb and blasted a 102 mph grounder to right field for a 2-0 zone sinker. Meadows had a .398 wOBA against sinkers this season, and when he saw one, he let it rip. After Kerry Carpenter flied out, a Matt Vierling groundout moved Meadows over, giving Riley Greene a chance to drive it in with two outs.

In general, I admire hitters who are aggressive with runners in scoring position. It's an old school mentality, but it's important to take your best swings and try to bring the opponent in, especially with two outs. If a pitch is slightly out of zone but your timing is right and you see it well, give it a try. That's exactly what Greene did when he attacked a 1-1 splitter that faded out of the zone:

The ball left the bat at 105 miles per hour, scoring Meadows. This is exactly what you want from your best player.

In the third inning, with Jake Rogers at third with one out, Vierling delivered a prime hit, flying far enough to left for a sacrifice fly. After that, it was quiet on both sides despite multiple run-scoring opportunities. When Spencer Torkelson came to bat in the sixth game with Colt Keith at second, it was a chance for him to flip the script, and not just because of the subpar swings on his previous at-bats – he had struck out against Cobb and later Erik Sabrowski – but his overall scoreless performance after the season. After taking a 2-1 lead against Eli Morgan, he attacked a four-seater at the top of the zone and hit the ball so hard that he found some grass in the outfield for a double:

It wasn't his best swing, but it was good enough to get the job done and score for Keith. It also provided a large increase in insurance, although this additional buffer did not prove necessary. The Tigers bullpen was a blast. The Guardians used first and second in the seventh inning but were unable to capitalize and went down in order in the eighth and ninth innings. Detroit's six pitchers combined for six strikeouts and two walks and barely allowed any barrels. While the Guardians had eight hard-hit balls on the night, only three were hit in the sweet spot range of eight to 32 degrees. After Hurter pitched 3.1 innings in the bulk role, Beau Brieske, Sean Guenther, Will Vest and Holton combined to allow just one hit.

Hinch pressed all the right buttons all night, including when he struck out for Carpenter. Despite Carpenter's fantastic career numbers against righties (148 wRC+), he still hasn't figured out how to adapt his swing to righties (career 69 wRC+). As much as it stinks to eliminate one of your biggest threats against righties early in a game, it's a decision Hinch has had to make all year, and he's stuck with that approach so far in these playoffs. When Carpenter came to bat against a left-handed hitter in the fifth, he was pulled for Justyn-Henry Malloy, who issued a walk on five pitches. Knowing how Hinch will likely behave when Carpenter faces a left-handed hitter, I'll be very interested to see how aggressively Vogt tries to get his bat out of the game tonight.

Speaking of tonight, the Guardians' bats need to wake up. It's been quiet since the first inning of Game 1, and now the season is on the line. The Tigers, meanwhile, are playing with house money. If you have a chance to secure an ALCS berth, you can expect a lively crowd in Detroit. As unexpected as this duel in July would have been, it was definitely exciting.