This is where Hurricane Rafael is likely to hit the US, models say

The strength of Hurricane Rafaelwhich is expected to develop from Tropical Depression 18 in the Caribbean, has been steadily increasing over the weekend. Since Friday's forecasts, various models and trackers for Monday, November 4th have predicted that Rafael will transform from a tropical depression into a hurricane as it passes over Cuba by Wednesday morning. The storm then slowly advances into the Gulf of Mexico. Here is the current path of Hurricane Rafael and where it is expected to hit the United States.

What path is Hurricane Rafael likely to take in the Gulf?

Hurricane Rafael's path is expected to hit Jamaica, western Cuba and then somewhere in the U.S. between Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the western panhandle region of Florida.

This is based on spaghetti models from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) at 4 a.m. PDT / 7 a.m. EDT on Monday. Most forecasts have the center of Tropical Depression 18, which will likely become Hurricane Rafael, moving toward Louisiana.

More specifically, its path is headed toward New Orleans by Saturday, but since we're still about five days away from direct landfall in the United States, there's still plenty of time for the system to move and change direction. Rafael may slow down, speed up, or tilt west or east as the week progresses.

More importantly, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicts Hurricane Rafael will weaken in strength to a tropical storm after Friday. This is due in part to colder sea temperatures along the Gulf Coast of the United States in November. However, the strength of the storm will depend on how long it stays in the warmer Caribbean waters and how much wind shear may weaken it as it moves through the Gulf.

The NHC is also monitoring a large low pressure area in the southwest Atlantic, stretching from northern Cuba to Anguilla and St. Martin. A system is forecast to develop into a tropical depression over the next seven days with a low probability (20%).

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