The US wants this to be the “end” of direct fire between Israel and Iran. It might be too early to tell

CNN
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After Israel's attack on Iran on Saturday, U.S. officials were quick to warn both countries against continuing the cycle of violence, but analysts say lasting de-escalation is not a given.

The airstrikes “should mark the end of this direct exchange of fire between Israel and Iran,” a senior U.S. government official said after the strikes.

After reports of explosions in Tehran emerged, Israel said in a statement that it had launched “precise strikes on military targets in Iran” early Saturday. The attacks were in response to rocket fire fired by Iran into Israel on October 1 in retaliation for the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and others.

Iran said Israel “attacked parts of military centers” in Tehran, Khuzestan and Ilam provinces on Saturday, causing “limited damage” in some areas.

Iran appeared to downplay the Israeli attack, Iranian experts said. State media broadcast images showing calm on the streets of Tehran, with traffic moving and people going about their daily business.

Iran's foreign ministry condemned the attack, calling it a “clear violation” of international law. The ministry added that Iran “believes it has the right and duty to defend itself” following the Israeli attacks.

Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in Washington, D.C., said Iran's downplayed response may be “more a reflection of its desire for de-escalation than a true assessment of the damage Israel has inflicted on Iran,” such as the attempts Israel to hide the damage caused by the Iranian attack on October 1st.

Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense for Democracies, also based in D.C., said Iran's downplayed response could be “a strategic move to save face and maintain U.S. pressure on Israel.”

After several hours of attacks on Saturday, the Israeli military said it had attacked production facilities that produce missiles that Iran fired at Israel last year. Israel also said it struck Iranian air defense systems early Saturday to allow its planes to attack the other targets.

Israel's decision to strike early Saturday morning came after weeks of deliberations within its security cabinet over the nature and scale of such an attack, Israeli officials said.

U.S. officials were eager to show the extent to which Israel's attack was restrained and precise, especially as the U.S. urged Israel not to attack Iran's energy infrastructure for fear of triggering a larger conflict, a request that Israel appears to have heeded, according to preliminary reports.

After Israel's retaliatory strikes against Iran ended, National Security Council spokesman Sean Savett said the White House was “calling on Iran to cease its attacks on Israel so that this cycle of fighting can end without further escalation.”

But Israel has not always met the demands of its American ally. Throughout the war, Israel has resisted U.S. calls for restraint – in the Rafah operation in southern Gaza and more recently in a ground war in southern Lebanon.

Disagreements between the two governments culminated in an Oct. 13 U.S. letter to Israel calling on the Jewish state to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza within the next 30 days or risk violating U.S. rules regulating it foreign military aid, suggesting that US military aid could be at risk.

Danny Citrinowicz, a research fellow in the Iran program at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv and a retired Israel Defense Intelligence Agency officer who specialized in Iran, said it is still too early to predict what the coming hours and days will be like would develop. “But one thing is clear,” he said: “Israel and Iran were closer to the brink of direct war last night than ever before.”

“The ball is now in the Iranian leadership’s court,” Citrinowicz said

Parsi, of the Quincy Institute, said: “If Iran decides to exercise restraint…then this chapter may be closed, but the conflict will remain very much alive.”

When Iran decided to exercise restraint following Israel's retaliation in April, it encouraged the Jewish state to eliminate key Hezbollah leaders in Beirut, triggering the next cycle of aggression.

Experts say that while Israel continues its wars in Gaza and Lebanon, any lull in direct fighting between Iran and Israel is likely to be short-lived.

As long as these regional wars continue, the overall development of the Israeli-Iranian conflict will escalate. “While there may be some tactical de-escalation, the trend remains escalating,” Parsi said, adding: “A new exchange of fire between Israel and Iran will only be a matter of time,” with the next round likely to be “more violent.” become .”

Israel has long tried to persuade Iran and other Iranian proxies to return to deterrence. But experts say Israel's strategy may not be entirely effective.

“Iran will not be deterred from escalating in the future if it sees fit, and neither will Israel,” said HA Hellyer, a scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies in London, told CNN's Paula Newton added that deterrence is often used as a pretext by the attacking state, but this only leads to more regional instability.

“There is no de-escalation through escalation,” he said, “which is the most incredible thing I have ever heard.”