The truth about Paolo Banchero and his 50-point night: Orlando has a superstar in the making

There's the eye test, there's the numbers, and there's a lot of argument in between.

It's a common story in the NBA and elsewhere: A player looks like a bona fide star and may even perform admirably in certain statistical categories, but underperforming in other, more holistic and perhaps more fine-tuned metrics leaves open the question of how a lot of these players “contributes” or “drives” the win. (“If he’s a good batsman, why doesn’t he bat well?”)

That, to some extent, was Paolo Banchero's reputation in two professional seasons that charted a very familiar path on the star map. No. 1 pick in the 2022 NBA Draft. Instant 20-point scorer on offense and hands-down rookie of the year. In his second season, he posted general offensive upswings that led to an All-Star nomination and his first playoff appearance, leading the Orlando Magic back to the postseason after a three-year drought.

But as impressive as the 6-foot-10, 250-pound Duke product's raw performance was, so was his means of achieving it – mid-range and 3-point jumpers accounted for more than 60% of his field goal attempts, although he made less than 40% of them – earned Banchero the most controversial title among players vying for modern fame: inefficient.

The Magic finished last in 10 points per possession in Banchero's first two seasons despite his shooting, and even scored more effectively when he was off the floor last season. Among the 65 qualified players who used at least 25% of their teams' offensive possessions over the past two seasons, Banchero ranked 62nd in effective field goal percentage, meaning 3-pointers are worth more than 2-pointers . (Right next to him? Russell Westbrook.) That goes a long way to explaining why so many advanced metrics — estimated plus-minus, LEBRON, DARKO, value versus replacement, win shares per 48 minutes, whatever — rate Paolo higher than “pretty okay.” instead of as a “premier operator”, although his statistics put him on a par with players like young Michael, LeBron and Luka.

However, sometimes the distance between the eye test and the numbers disappears, and when they start saying the same thing, there is no room for argument or misinterpretation; What's left is the truth or something like that. And holy hell, was Paolo Banchero ever the truth on Monday night:

Banchero defeated the Pacers with panache and precision, scoring a career-high 50 points on 16-for-26 shooting – the first 50 balls of this still-paltry 2024-25 NBA season – to lead Orlando to a 119-115 victory. He also contributed to the victory elsewhere by grabbing a game-high 13 rebounds and providing nine assists in 40 minutes, securing several entries in the history books.

With his 37-point blitz in two quarters, Banchero became just the third player in the last 27 years to post 35 points, five rebounds and five assists in a half, tying Tracy McGrady for the highest-scoring half of the season History of Magic. according to Justin Kubatko at Statitudes. When he finished, Banchero became only the fourth Magic player ever to score 50 points, and only the fourth player to score 50 and 10 points before the age of 22.

Even applying the stat buff that comes from “playing against the Pacers defense,” Banchero’s performance was breathtaking. It's not fair The He scored 19 points on nine shots in the first quarter, added another 18 points on eight attempts in the second quarter and rebounded from a slow third quarter with nine more points on just three shots in the treacherous fourth quarter. It was, if you'll pardon the repetition, his means of getting there.

How Banchero pushed through Pascal Siakam, Obi Toppin, Isaiah Jackson, Aaron Nesmith, Ben Sheppard and anyone else Rick Carlisle wanted to send after him, those sledgehammer shoulders that pierced through all resistance without losing momentum, always charging forward. How he played the drive with the pull-up and ate up the space offered to him by his resume and results by settling into a rhythm of hitting.

How he took advantage of the extra help Indiana sent inadequately and unsuccessfully, making the simple pass to provide nine assists, seven of which produced three-pointers, layups or dunks. How confidently he exercised control over what was happening and drew 13 fouls (his final tally would have been even more impressive without seven missed free throws), netted a whopping 81 points and demanded the attention that spawned the kill shot…

…to seal another win for a Magic team that, as my colleague Morten Stig Jensen noted on Monday, opened the season with an improved offense that matched last season's second-ranked defense.

After four games, Orlando sits fourth in the NBA in points per possession outside of garbage time, according to Cleaning the Glass. That's a gigantic improvement from last season, thanks in part to moving a large portion of his shot attempts from mid-range… a change that, not coincidentally, was reflected in his All-Star's shot selection early on.

The more the Magic start from long range, the more space they should create inside for what is already one of the league's best performing teams. In a related story, Banchero is shooting at the rim for the highest percentage of his career and committing fouls on more than a quarter of his shot attempts. The more he attacks the basket and the more help he takes, the more kickout feeds open up for Orlando's shooters – and we probably can't expect that from Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs, Anthony Black, Gary Harris and Mo Wagner all continue to shoot better than 40% from 3-point range, some Improving Orlando's overall shooting accuracy should help turn a bottom-10 offense into at least an average one, led by a Blake Griffin-sized freight train that can give you anything you want.

“I think people are still learning about him, which is mind-blowing to me,” Magic teammate Cole Anthony told reporters earlier this year. “…He'll be a household name.”

Hanging half a hundred at once doesn't guarantee that. (Kudos to Malachi Flynn, Saddiq Bey, Terrence Ross and Corey Brewer, among others.) But if the Magic can pair up The Offensive improvement with The Elite defense, they have a recipe that could go beyond just making the playoffs and making a real splash when they arrive. The guys who run such teams end up shining an order of magnitude brighter, replacing the old “eye test vs. numbers” arguments with a newfound consensus that a new superstar is being born.