The likelihood of a tropical storm forming is increasing

The chance of an area of ​​concern in the Caribbean Sea strengthening into Tropical Storm Patty later this week has increased to 40 percent.

There's more than a month left in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, and the next storm will be named Patty. It follows Hurricane Oscar, which devastated Cuba last week.

National Hurricane Center meteorologists are monitoring a problem area in the Caribbean Sea. Over the weekend, the chance of the system forming within the next seven days was low, but the chance has now increased to moderate, according to the latest NHC forecast.

“In a few days, an extensive low pressure area is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea,” the forecast says. “Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form later this week or over the weekend as the system begins to drift north or northeast over the southwest and central Caribbean Sea.”

The NHC posted on X, formerly Twitter, that the monitored system would not pose a threat to the United States within the next seven days.

NHC hurricane specialist Andrew Hagen said Newsweek that the system will likely still be in the Caribbean by this time next week. If the storm develops and moves further north, it could be torn apart by strong wind shear in the area.

“If this system moves too far north, it will be difficult to continue to strengthen,” Hagen said.

Typically, storms that form this late in the season move either westward, over Central America, like Tropical Storm Nadine last week, or eastward, toward Cuba. Alex DaSilva, senior meteorologist at AccuWeather, said this previously Newsweek that based on current atmospheric conditions, he doubts the next storm will move westward should it form.

According to the NHC forecast, the storm would likely move north or northeast. Although it's still too early to predict an official direction, DaSilva thinks it's possible the storm could do so They target Florida and impact the western or southern parts of the state. Florida recently battled two consecutive major hurricanes. with Helene at the end of September and Milton at the beginning of October.

However, Hagen said the system does not currently pose a threat to Florida.

The NHC is not monitoring any other systems in the Atlantic Ocean as of Monday morning.

If Tropical Storm Patty forms, it would be the 16th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.

In May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released a forecast that predicted 17 to 25 named storms with winds of 39 miles per hour or more. In August, the agency updated its forecast slightly and now expects 17 to 24 this season.