The battle for control of the House of Representatives is heating up as Democrats battle the Trump agenda and Republicans eye full power

WASHINGTON – Republicans have regained control of the White House and Senate. Now all eyes are on the House of Representatives, which Democrats see as their last line of defense to stop President-elect Donald Trump and his agenda.

The fight for the majority involves enormous risks.

Will Trump exercise a Republican trifecta that will be expected to support his agenda and demands? Or will he face a Democrat-led House that would serve as a check on his legislative agenda and exercise subpoena power to investigate his administration?

Because many races have not yet been contested, NBC News has not yet predicted which party will control the House of Representatives in 2025. But given Trump's decisive victory over Vice President Kamala Harris, House Republicans are optimistic about their chances of retaining their narrow majority.

In a statement from West Palm Beach, Florida, where he spent time with Trump and his team, Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., predicted that he and his party would remain in power in the House.

“House Republicans managed to achieve key turning points in swing states like Pennsylvania and Michigan, while our battle-hardened incumbents secured re-election from coast to coast,” Johnson said in the statement. “The latest data and trends indicate that after all votes were tallied, Republicans maintained our majority despite being on a map with 18 seats won by Biden.”

Democrats in Congress have been relatively quiet in coming to terms with Trump's stunning victory, but are not throwing in the towel. Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., expressed optimism Wednesday afternoon, pointing to several bright spots. He said Democrats held open seats in Virginia and Michigan, won victories in Alabama and Louisiana due to redistricting and were targeting four GOP seats in New York.

The “House of Representatives remains very much in play,” Jeffries said in a statement. “The path to reclaiming the majority now leads through narrow pickup opportunities in Arizona, Oregon and Iowa – along with several Democratic-leaning districts in Southern California and the Central Valley.” It is not yet clear which party will have the majority in the House of Representatives in January 2025 . We have to count every vote.”

House Democrats plan to hold a members-only virtual session on Thursday to discuss the election results and next steps, according to an invitation shared with NBC News.

A different kind of battlefield

Which party controls the House of Representatives will have significant consequences for Trump's second administration.

“It's the difference between a GOP stamp and a modicum of control over the Trump administration and control of his legislative agenda,” said Ezra Levin, co-founder of the progressive activist group Indivisible.

Rep. Brendan Boyle, D-Pa., said it was “déjà vu all over again.”

“I was in the House of Representatives when Trump was president for the first time. So I know what it’s like,” Boyle said. “Trump means crazy chaos. Every day Trump vacillates from one thing to the next. In the morning he fires one of his employees via tweet, and in the afternoon he tries to buy Greenland. Therefore, it is incumbent upon Democrats in the House of Representatives, whether in the majority or minority, to remain as strong and united as ever.”

The House battleground is different from the terrain that decided the presidency and control of the Senate for the GOP, as it largely runs through the suburbs where Democrats are holding their own in an otherwise disastrous election for the party in 2024 have. Harris lost among Latino voters and younger men but gained ground among white women, college graduates and older voters.

Because of the GOP's razor-thin 220-212 majority, Democrats needed a net gain of just four seats to regain control of the House they lost two years ago. But so far both parties have won important victories — either by redistricting or by upsetting incumbents — keeping the GOP in control for now.

In New York, Democrats secured a seat by defeating new GOP Rep. Brandon Williams, who represents a Syracuse-area district. And another first-time lawmaker in the Empire State, Republican Rep. Marc Molinaro, trailed Democrat Josh Riley with 94% of votes counted, although NBC News has not yet called that race.

In Pennsylvania, a crucial swing state that Trump won, Republicans unseated two vulnerable Democratic incumbents. Republican businessman Rob Bresnahan unseated six-term Rep. Matt Cartwright in northeastern Pennsylvania's 8th District, which Trump carried in 2020. Next door, in the 7th District, Republican state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie defeated Democratic Rep. Susan Wild, who flipped a GOP seat in a 2018 special election.

“There is no sugarcoating it: this is a bitterly disappointing result,” Wild said in a statement in which she withdrew from the race and congratulated her opponent.

Republicans also opened up a seat in Michigan's 7th District after Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin decided to run for Senate.

Other races were too close to call. Republican Nick Begich III led Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola by several percentage points in Alaska's at-large district, receiving about 70% of the vote. In Arizona, vulnerable GOP Rep. Juan Ciscomani trailed Democratic challenger Kirsten Engel by about 60%. of votes counted, while Republican Rep. David Schweikert had a slight lead over Democrat Amish Shah with more than 60% of votes counted.

In Nebraska, moderate GOP Rep. Don Bacon appeared to be on track for reelection despite being a top Democratic target.

Because California is notoriously slow at counting ballots, some of the half-dozen closely contested elections there that will determine which party wins a majority in the House are likely to take days. But as of early Wednesday afternoon, the five Republican incumbents whose elections Cook Political Report labeled a “mistake” were all ahead of their Democratic challengers.

In the Golden State's 13th District, Republican Rep. John Duarte was ahead of Democrat Adam Gray with about half the vote. In the Central Valley's 22nd District, Republican Rep. David Valadao had a 10-point lead over Democrat Rudy Salas with just over half the votes counting. In the 27th District, Republican Rep. Mike Garcia narrowly defeated Democrat George Whitesides with 65% of the vote. In the 45th District, Republican Rep. Michelle Steel had a 5-point lead over Democrat Derek Tran with more than 60%. And in the 41st District, longtime GOP Rep. Ken Calvert edged out Democrat Will Rollins with 60% of votes counted.

In another California battleground, NBC News predicted Wednesday that Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley defeated Democrat Jessica Morse.