Tens of millions of early votes were cast. What could it mean for Election Day?

As Election Day approaches, tens of millions of voters across the country have already cast their ballots.

As of Friday afternoon, more than 68 million Americans, about 43% of 2020 voter turnout, had voted against standing in line on Election Day, whether through absentee voting or early in-person polling stations, according to the University of Florida's polling lab.

Academic experts, reporters and pundits have been sifting through basic and limited data from the early voting numbers, trying to get clues about next week's outcome.

But that picture isn't exactly black and white, according to Charles Stewart, director of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Election Data Science Laboratory.

“It’s like talking about the weather,” he said. “The candidates, the press, etc. – are really trying to draw conclusions based on the data alone, but there’s really not much to say who will win.”

Still, Stewart said the early voting data provides some insight into this year's voting behavior and overall voter turnout – indicators that could help explain the election's outcome.

A shift in the way people vote early

Voting trends have shown that more people have chosen to cast their vote before Election Day, and that number has increased over the past 30 years, but 2020 proved to be a major outlier, according to Stewart.

In the last presidential election, 69% of the 158 million total votes were cast before Election Day either by mail, including absentee ballots cast in person, or at early voting polling locations, according to MIT data.

About 43% of early voting in 2020 came from mail-in ballots, according to the data.

Stewart said the COVID-19 pandemic has forced many voters who were already highly engaged and wanted to play it safe to opt for absentee voting or smaller voting lines when available.

“There was speculation about what would happen with the postponement when the pandemic was over,” he said.

However, this year's early voting saw a decline in voters who chose to vote by mail, Stewart said.

“The main trend I’m seeing is that interest in absentee voting has shifted to in-person voting,” Stewart said.

He noted that change is evident in Georgia, which saw record early voting numbers with more than 3.8 million ballots cast on Friday. According to the Georgia Secretary of State's Office, about 92% of votes were cast at in-person polling stations, with the remainder cast by mail.

Stewart said some states, including swing states Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Arizona, offer early voting only through the in-person option. This option requires a voter to request a mail-in ballot, fill it out, and then drop it off at either a ballot drop box or a designated location. He is then considered a postal voter.

Some voters may not have the time or energy to take these additional early voting steps and will likely vote in person, Stewart said.

“If you need to vote early in person, you need to find out where that precinct is, but you need to find out which one is closer to your house or your errands. With absentee voting, you have to go to the trouble of submitting an application, filling it out and returning it and hoping the mail is delivered on time,” he said. “With Election Day voting, you will likely have a polling place that is much closer to you.”

According to Stewart, it's not just the preference for the early voting method that's seeing a shift.

The partisan numbers do not provide any information about the outcome

Stewart said historical trends show the majority of early voters made their decisions long ago and are likely politically active.

This year's data shows that to be the case, he said, but there is a significant change in partisan turnout in several battleground states, according to the University of Florida's Election Lab.

Registered Republicans saw higher early voter turnout in the battlegrounds of Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina this election than in 2024, according to the data.

Typically, Democrats have had an advantage in early voting. However, Trump has urged his supporters to vote earlier and that appears to be having an impact, Stewart said.

While Republican officials have touted these higher numbers as a sign of growing support, Stewart cautioned that the data is more nuanced.

He noted that so far this shows that a large portion of registered Republicans who voted early were people who voted on Election Day in 2020 and were not new voters.

Stewart said this would mean fewer Republican voters would cast ballots on Election Day and therefore their votes might not be announced until much later on election night or even days afterward.

In 2020, many swing states saw their Democratic numbers surge on election night and into the week, creating a “red mirage” effect on the outcome.

That mirage and “blue wave” could be muted this time, Stewart said.

“Whatever the blue shift is, it will probably increase less,” he said.

What do gender and race say about early voting?

Democrats have cited the gender gap as a factor in their favor in the early voting numbers, with over 54% of women having cast ballots as of Friday, according to data from the University of Florida.

Stewart said that assumption was not remarkable.

According to the Center for Women and Politics at Rutgers University, women have always made up the majority of the electorate in presidential elections, dating back to 1980.

Stewart said this also applies to early voters.

“It is not always obvious to the public that there has always been a gender gap,” he said.

When it comes to race, white voters are more likely to cast their ballot by mail than black voters, according to MIT data.

Stewart said this is due to traditions dating back to the civil rights movement.

“Black Americans fought and sometimes died to march to the voting booth. That was instilled in the community,” he said.

This practice is one reason why large numbers of black voters go to in-person early voting locations in states like Georgia and South Carolina where this option exists.

Churches, civil rights groups and other organizations with ties to the black community are urging voters to visit early polls to avoid complications on Election Day with campaigns like “Souls to the Polls.”

Groups in Georgia, in particular, have emphasized early voting to get around some of the restrictive voting laws in place since the 2020 election.

According to the Georgia Secretary of State, more than a million Black voters had cast their ballots as of Friday evening.

“The mobilization efforts have clearly proven effective,” Stewart said.

The signs point to high voter turnout

Stewart said the only clear conclusion that can be drawn from the early voting data is that overall voter turnout this year will be “on par” with 2020, which is the highest percentage turnout in over 100 years.

“It could be in the high 160 (million),” he estimated.

Stewart said early voting trends showed that voters under 25 had not yet voted and that they would typically line up on Election Day.

“These populations are really well represented on Election Day,” he said.

Stewart reiterated that once the pandemic ends, a large portion of early voters in 2020 will likely return to voting on Election Day, especially if it is the easier option for their locations and schedules.

Looking forward, Steward predicted that the increase in Republican voters voting early will continue in future cycles, as will the overall trend of the electorate opting for early voting.

“The data shows this organic increase in early voting even after the pandemic,” he said. “Voters want more choices and they will seriously consider voting when they have more choices.”