Sudden active tropics – Texas and Gulf Coast are warned

As Halloween night rolls around in places like Galveston, High Island, Corpus Christi, South Padre and Matagorda, a collective sigh of relief can usually be heard. This is because the calendar has changed from October to November. And that means the official Atlantic hurricane season only lasts 30 days.

The problem with this way of thinking is that Mother Nature neither reads our calendars nor cares that we are tired of worrying about tropical storms and hurricanes. Nature will do what nature has to do, and apparently there is still a lot of tropical heat that needs to be transported north.

You all know that heat transfer is the main reason for these big storms, right? It's part of nature to strive for balance, and when things get too hot in the tropics, Mother Nature expels some of that heat toward the poles in the form of hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones.

The graphic above is from the National Hurricane Center. As you can see, there are three different problem areas. One of them is far in the North Atlantic and doesn't appear to be a problem for any landmass, at least not in the near future.

The other two areas of concern are already bringing showers and storms to some islands in the Caribbean. There is an area of ​​unsettled weather over Puerto Rico. This system is forecast to move west toward Hispaniola, Cuba and the Bahamas over the next seven days. The chance of strengthening in the next week is around 10%.

The graphic you see above is also from the National Hurricane Center, but includes the “uncertainty range” for the observed weather systems. You will notice the orange area in the southern Caribbean Sea. This area has a 60% chance of strengthening over the next seven days.

And even though it is officially November and the tropical season should be coming to an end, the tropical forecast models are developing solutions that could be very worrisome for interests along the Gulf Coast.

Please note that these are model solutions and not official forecasts. Furthermore, since these are very long-range model solutions, the accuracy of the information will certainly be compromised. What we can see from these models is that there appears to be a strong chance of a tropical feature in the northwest Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

The GFS model run late Thursday (Central Daylight Time) suggests “something in the Gulf of Mexico” on or around Nov. 7. The same modeling solution also suggests that a strong cold front will move through the Gulf South around the same time.

If the cold front arrives in time, Texas and the northern Gulf Coast should have no problems. If it is delayed or not as strong as forecast, we could see an interesting first week of November.

For clarity, here's what you need to know. There are no imminent tropical problems in the Gulf of Mexico or the Texas coast. The Hurricane Center is monitoring three areas of disturbed weather. Two of these areas could affect the Gulf of Mexico next week. This forecast is still subject to great uncertainty. Please check back regularly for up-to-date information.