See projected path, spaghetti models

According to the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Rafael made landfall in western Cuba on Wednesday as a Category 3 storm and continued to move northwest on Thursday morning.

The National Hurricane Center said at 4:15 p.m. ET on Wednesday that the storm hit the Cuban province of Artemisa, east of Playa Majana, with sustained winds of up to 110 mph (180 km/h), knocking out the island's power grid.

As the center of Rafael moved toward the Gulf, “life-threatening storm surge” and flash flooding occurred in parts of western Cuba, the hurricane center said Wednesday evening. Meanwhile, the island's entire population of 10 million was once again in the dark, a crisis repeated several times in the last three weeks.

The hurricane center said a turn to the west with a slower forward speed is expected on Thursday and that this general movement will continue through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds will be around 105 mph with stronger gusts Thursday morning, and some weakening is expected over the next few days, the NHC said.

According to the forecast, Rafael is expected to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico in the next few days.

An additional 2 to 4 inches of rainfall is expected Thursday, bringing total accumulations of 12 inches across parts of western Cuba. According to the hurricane center, waves caused by Rafael are expected to spread from east to west over most of the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days.

“These waves are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions,” the NHC said in a statement Thursday morning.

Will Hurricane Rafael hit the US?

Rafael is expected to follow a northwesterly path after leaving Cuba and “meander across the south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week,” the hurricane center said, adding that those in the southern and southwestern portions of the Gulf You should keep track of your progress.

As the storm rages in the Gulf, it is expected to weaken as it encounters wind shear, drier air and cooler water. Long-range forecast models disagree, showing the storm could have direct impacts anywhere from eastern Mexico to Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and the Florida Panhandle.

“Once Rafael arrives in the Gulf of Mexico, subtle differences in intensity and atmospheric steering winds could have a significant impact on his final route,” said AccuWeather meteorologist Bill Deger. “It is also possible that Rafael could be torn apart by strong winds high in the atmosphere and dissipate in the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall.”

According to AccuWeather, steering winds from a storm over the southern United States are increasing uncertainty in the forecast. The hurricane center warned that there is also “above-average uncertainty regarding the intensity of Rafael over the remainder of the forecast period.”

Despite expected weakening in the Gulf, Rafael and its winds will be large and strong enough to produce rough seas and life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, the hurricane center said.

Hurricane Rafael Path Tracker

This forecast track shows the most likely direction of the storm center. It does not show the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is expected to move outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

Hurricane Rafael spaghetti models

The illustrations span a range of forecasting tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center only uses the four or five best-performing models in its forecasts.

Gabe Hauari is a nationally featured news reporter at USA TODAY. You can follow him on X @GabeHauari or email him at [email protected].

Will Hurricane Rafael hit the US?

Hurricane Rafael Path Tracker

Hurricane Rafael spaghetti models

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