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See map, forecast and status

See map, forecast and status

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It is expected to move near or just east of the Cuban Island of Youth on Wednesday afternoon and make landfall in western Cuba later on Wednesday. Rafael is then expected to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in the evening.

The NHC said Rafael was expected to gain strength and become a major hurricane – i.e. However, “it is expected to develop as a hurricane in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.”

A Category 3 hurricane has wind speeds of 111 to 129 miles per hour, according to the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale.

Meteorologists warned that Rafael was expected to unleash life-threatening storm surge, devastating hurricane-force winds and flash flooding in parts of western Cuba.

A hurricane warning was in effect on Tuesday for the Cayman Islands and the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Matanzas and the Isle of Youth. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus and Diego de Avila, as well as the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge and the Dry Tortugas.

Hurricane conditions are expected in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday.

Rafael will bring heavy rains across the western Caribbean through early Thursday, with 4 to 8 inches expected in western Cuba, with isolated higher amounts of up to 12 inches in higher terrain, causing flash floods and mudslides. Storm surges could also raise water levels along Cuba's southern coast “up to 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels in areas with onshore winds,” the NHC said.

As for potential impacts to the U.S., tropical storm conditions are expected in the lower and central Florida Keys Wednesday evening.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the lower and central Florida Keys. Multiple tornadoes are also possible across the Florida Keys and southwest mainland Florida through Wednesday evening.

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