Restrict Bijan, win 1st down

FRISCO, Texas – The Cowboys return to Atlanta this week in search of their elusive fourth win of the 2024 season. We have an in-depth edition of Here We Goooo where we'll show you what to watch and how it affects the outcome of the game effects. Let's dive right in:

The Cowboys have faced many top running backs this season, including Derrick Henry, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery and Alvin Kamara, all of whom thrived against a Dallas defense that was the worst in yards allowed on the ground per game was in the league. Things won't get any easier with Bijan Robinson taking the field for the Falcons. Robinson's role in Atlanta's offense has been a roller coaster ride throughout his career so far, but he has made his performances count. Robinson has the ninth-most rushing yards (546) and four rushing touchdowns this season.

Robinson performed best on runs under center and posted the league's best success rate in that situation at 57.6%. He rushed for 176 yards and a touchdown on 33 such runs, or 5.3 yards per carry. Why is it important to keep an eye on this particular situation? The Cowboys defense has conceded the most touchdowns (11) and 2^nd-Highest success rate (49.3) in the league on under-center runs in 2024.

Dallas did a good job of taking the lead in the run game in the first half against San Francisco, and they'll need to do that again in all four quarters on Sunday as Robinson loves to get outside and into space. He carries the ball outside 74.1% of the time, gaining 394 yards and all four of his rushing touchdowns on 86 carries. His success rate on these types of runs is 43%, and he has gained more than 10 yards on 7 of those 86 carries.

Forgive me if I sound like a broken record, but when it comes down to it, football games are won and lost at all levels. This game features two teams that struggled at the line of scrimmage, particularly struggling to put pressure on the quarterback.

Let's start with Dallas' defense: They have amassed a quick pressure rate of 14% this season, which is 21%^st in the league, one year removed from its peak of 24.2% in 2023. On average, it takes Dallas 2.90 seconds to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks, which is the longest time in the league. However, there is some good news. The Falcons' offensive line has had uncharacteristic struggles at times this season, with All-Pro right guard Chris Lindstrom (who missed Wednesday's practice) allowing 30 pressures through eight weeks, already more than the 29 he gave up all of last season had. Left tackle Jake Matthews has also allowed an 11.2% pressure rate, his highest rate since his 2018 Pro Bowl campaign. Additionally, Cowboys defensive end Carl Lawson has performed well over the last three weeks, throwing in 50 passes Generated a team-high nine pressures, a pressure rate of 18%. That's about what Micah Parsons (18.2) scored in his first four games of the season. If Lawson can keep up and the Cowboys finally find pressure at the line of scrimmage, that could bode well against a quarterback who struggles under pressure in Kirk Cousins, who has thrown six of his seven interceptions under pressure.

On the other hand, Dallas' young offensive line will face one of the worst pass rush units in the league on Sunday. The Falcons have posted a league-worst six sacks and a 25.9% pressure rate on quarterbacks this season. Matthew Judon, the Pro Bowl edge rusher for whom Atlanta traded a third-round pick in August, has generated pressure on just 7.9% of his pass rushes this season, the only time since 2018 that his rate was below 10%. Judon will continue to be a challenge for Tyler Guyton and Terence Steele, who have struggled in scoring this season. The bright spot for the Cowboys' offensive front has been Tyler Smith, who has the lowest pressure rate (2.8) in the league among players with at least 100 pass-blocking snaps on the left side and also hasn't given up a sack.

Early losses were a focus for Mike McCarthy as the season progressed, but the Cowboys didn't show much improvement over the course of the year. The first down sets the tone for the rest of the downs and drive, and life becomes difficult when you can only muster a yard or two before the second down. The Cowboys offense has a 32.5% success rate on first downs, the worst in the NFL.

Even worse, the Cowboys have a 22.8% rushing success rate on first downs, which is also good for worst in the league. It's also the second-lowest offensive rate since 2016, showing how poor the Dallas run game has been this year. They ran the ball 87 times for 260 yards on first down, an average of three yards per carry and -75 rushing yards above expectations overall. To put it in perspective, there are 20 individual players who have more rushing yards on first down than the Cowboys as a team.

The bright spot in this game is that the Falcons defense has a 31.5% miss tackle rate against first down runs this season, the highest in the NFL. Dallas doesn't need to be elite on first down or elite in the running game, but if they can line up better on second and third downs, it makes things easier for an offense that has consistently fallen behind on downs and distances this season.