Recent Trump-Harris polls show it's getting to the point

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A week before Election Day, an estimated 47 million votes have already been cast in the presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. It's possible that the polls are wrong, but it's unlikely that much will change before this long and complicated campaign cycle ends. Poll analysts, who use different methods to average the polls, have somewhat different views on the race. But without splitting hairs, it's hard to imagine anything other than an incredibly close race in which late turnout trends and poll errors ultimately tell us something we can't know right now: the identity of the 47th president.

According to FiveThirtyEight, Kamala Harris is ahead in the national polling average by 1.5 percent; 1.2 percent per Nate Silver; 2 percent according to Washington post (the numbers are rounded) and one percent according to New York Just (which also rounds numbers). RealClearPolitics, which unlike other media outlets does not rate polls for accuracy or adjust them for partisan bias, shows Trump leading nationally by a 0.1 percent margin.

National surveys can indeed help us understand trends and underlying dynamics, particularly because they tend to have larger sample sizes. However, the fact that they have been so close for weeks, if not months, suggests that they cannot tell us who will actually win. The best we can do is extrapolate based on the relationship between the statewide popular vote and the number of electoral votes in previous elections. It makes Democrats nervous that Harris leads Trump by less than 2 percent in the national polls because Hillary Clinton lost in 2016 and won the national popular vote with 2.1 percent, while Joe Biden won in 2020 despite his 4.5 percent lead narrowly won the popular vote. But we have no idea whether Trump will again have an advantage in the Electoral College and, if so, how big it might be. (Harris may actually do better in the Electoral College than in the popular vote, as Barack Obama did in 2012.) And while we don't know how polling errors will reduce, the overall quality of the polls this year appears to be higher than that recent presidential elections.

Therefore, it is a better idea to focus on polls in the seven contested states. But overall they are also incredibly close to each other. You can identify the leaders in all seven cases if you focus on the fractions. FiveThirtyEight currently shows Trump leading in five of those seven states (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania), but by less than a point in Nevada and Pennsylvania. In Michigan and Wisconsin, Harris is ahead, but by less than one percent. A look at the rounded battlefield state numbers in New York Just The averages are eye-opening: They show that four battleground states (Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) are “even,” with Harris leading in Michigan by less than 1 percent, Trump in Georgia by 1 percent, and Trump ahead in Arizona by 2 Percent. A uniform change of one percent could give Harris 308 electoral votes or Trump 312 electoral votes. The Washington postBattlefield averages illustrate the same thing in a slightly different way. They show that Harris won in four states (Michigan with 2 percent, Nevada with less than one percent, Pennsylvania with one percent and Wisconsin with one percent) and Trump in three states (Arizona with two percent, Georgia with two percent and North Carolina with less than one percent) leading is one percent). But then post makes this crucial observation: “Each state is within a normal polling error of 3.5 points and could go either way.”

Both national and state polls suggest that the dynamics of the Harris-Trump contest remain reasonably clear. On these issues, Trump is very strong among voters who care most about immigration and continues to lead in most polls (albeit by shrinking margins) among voters focused on the economy. Meanwhile, Harris has a large lead among voters concerned about abortion rights. Starting with the Biden-Trump divides in the 2020 electorate, Harris improved Democrats' performance among college-educated white voters, while Trump improved Republicans' performance among black and Latino voters. Not surprisingly, this gives Harris a small advantage in states with relatively few non-white voting blocs (e.g., Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin), and helps Trump in Sun Belt states like Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. But there are some contradictory undercurrents: The Harris campaign is working hard to bring black men back into its column, while Trump's entire voter strategy relies on mobilizing low-propensity voters from his core demographics (particularly non-voters ) based. white voters with college degrees). The strong reaction from opinion leaders this week to slurs about Puerto Ricans (a crucial swing population in extremely near and important Pennsylvania) uttered by a comedian at Trump's wild rally in New York City shows that campaign events still influence the outcome can.

So it's a good idea to keep an eye on current polls in the final days of the campaign and try not to get too distracted by potentially misleading data points and claims. For example, early voting trends are being intensively examined. But aside from reflecting an overall decline in mail-in voting since the 2020 pandemic election and Republicans' efforts to encourage early in-person voting, particularly among their supporters, it's hard to say what the numbers mean, since most early voters do so otherwise You'll be voting on Election Day and Democrats tend to be relatively “late” early voters. Some of the old reliable indicators of presidential election outcomes are of limited use. Yes, the approval rating for the job of president is currently a terrible 39.5 percent (according to FiveThirtyEight), but Kamala Harris has presented herself reasonably well as a “change candidate” despite her own time in office. And yes, Harris has a small but steady advantage over Trump in terms of personal popularity (FiveThirtyEight's ratio is 46.3 percent favorable to 47.5 percent unfavorable, while Trump's is 43.5 percent favorable to 52 .1 percent is unfavorable), but that also applies to Hillary Clinton in 2016.

If you had to pick a likely winner at this point, the official forecasters are all leaning narrowly toward Trump (The Economist has the highest probability of Trump winning at 56 percent; Nate Silver and Decision Desk HQ have Trump at 54 percent; FiveThirtyEight shows him at 53 percent. Some analysts are looking at the race in terms of Electoral College scenarios that aren't entirely clear; This is New York Just' Characterizing the entire race: “Neither candidate is currently leading in a poll in enough states to reach 270 electoral votes. The polls in the tipping point states are essentially undecided.” Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball expresses conflicting “gut feelings,” citing trends that favor Trump but also noting a sense of déjà vu from 2022 that favors Harris.

In other words: it goes all the way to the end.