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Prominent election guru Nate Silver reveals his latest prediction

Prominent election guru Nate Silver reveals his latest prediction

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Renowned election guru Nate Silver called the race for the White House a “pure mistake” on Sunday, as his latest forecast gave former President Donald Trump a slight lead over Vice President Kamala Harris.

Silver's model shows Trump has a 51.5 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, while Harris has a 48.1 percent chance, according to a Substack post Sunday morning, Mediate reported.

“(New York Times) swing state polls are good for Harris, but not great. Morning Consult swing state polls are good for Trump, but not great,” Silver tweeted Sunday.

“It’s just a bad decision.”


Former President Trump waves to his supporters at the end of a campaign rally at the Kinston Regional Jetport in North Carolina.
Former President Trump waves to his supporters at the end of a campaign rally at the Kinston Regional Jetport in North Carolina. Getty Images

The Times/Siena College swing state poll found the two candidates remain in a dead heat in the country's seven battleground states with Election Day still two days away.

The poll shows Harris slightly ahead in Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia and Wisconsin, and Trump with a clearer advantage in Arizona. The pair are essentially tied in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

The Morning Consult poll shows Trump with a razor-thin lead in North Carolina, Georgia and Wisconsin, while tied in Arizona and Pennsylvania, Forbes reported.

The new poll comes after the Des Moines Register on Saturday revealed bombshell results from famed pollster J. Ann Selzer that showed Harris topping Trump in Iowa, 47% to 44% in the normally reliably red state.

Silver wrote that the Selzer poll “likely won’t play a role” in deciding who wins the presidency. But he noted that Harris supporters should be pleased with the shocking result.


Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign rally at Jenison Field House on the campus of Michigan State University.
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign rally at Jenison Field House on the campus of Michigan State University. Getty Images

“I think Harris voters have every right to be excited about the Selzer poll,” Silver wrote, according to Mediaite.

“At the very least, there will be a lot of numbers in recent polls from top pollsters that support a Harris win – and about as many that suggest a Trump win.”

“If Trump had any 'momentum' in October, it has now evaporated in November,” Silver added. “And we will most likely go into Tuesday night with the race truly neck-and-neck and not tilted toward Trump.”

The national poll average released Sunday morning by Silver showed Harris leading Trump 48.5% to 47.6%. But he cautioned that his model doesn't care much about national polls at this point.

In the swing states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, Silver gives Trump a small lead in the polling average, while Harris has a narrow lead in Michigan and Wisconsin.

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