Predicting how much Keegan Murray's rookie contract will be

On Monday, teams had their last chance to sign their 2021 NBA Draft picks to a rookie extension (the contract that comes after your first rookie contract).

With the Sacramento Kings giving up on their 2021 pick (Davion Mitchell), fans didn't have as much to look forward to. Nevertheless, we were able to learn something from all the new contracts that were signed.

Next offseason/preseason, the Kings will have to negotiate a rookie extension with their 2022 NBA Draft pick Keegan Murray (4th overall pick). As we've discussed numerous times on this site, Murray is the Kings' most important role player, and they need to make sure they treat him as such.

So how much does it cost to keep a young player with high-end two-way potential happy in 2025 (when this deal is negotiated)?

While they aren't exactly alike*, New Orleans Pelicans forward Trey Murphy III is a great player to compare Murray to from this past rookie extension round. For those who don't know, Murphy signed a four-year, $112 million extension.

(*Sidebar: Murphy is a better athlete and finisher than Murray. Meanwhile, Murray is stronger and a better defender – especially on the perimeter – than Murphy.)

Here's what that would look like for Murray based on the salary cap changes:

At first glance, a four-year, $120 million extension might sound crazy for a player who will likely never exceed the 20 PPG mark. But when it comes to contracts, you can't focus on the numbers. Rather, they focus on the percentage of the salary cap.

In this theoretical deal, Murray would receive between 14.5% and 15.9% of the salary cap between 2026 and 2030. That's a great price for a player who has the potential to be a top starter in this league for a long time (for reference: All-Stars/All-NBA players get about 25% to 35% of the salary cap) .