Pick six previews: A statistical look and preview of BYU in the second bye week

PROVO – BYU was picked by the Big 12 media to finish at the bottom of the expanded 16-team conference, exceeding all expectations and enjoying an undefeated “dream season” in its second bye week.

The Cougars are 8-0 overall and 5-0 in Big 12 play, with the program's longest winning streak and highest Associated Press poll ranking since 2020.

It wasn't a coincidence. BYU is one of just five programs to date with multiple wins over currently ranked teams – wins at No. 20 SMU and at home against No. 17 Kansas State – joining Oregon, Alabama, Georgia and Texas A&M.

Here in the final bye week, it's an opportunity to take stock of how BYU is performing in my opponent-adjusted metrics through eight games compared to the first bye and last season.

I'm also looking forward to BYU's final four opponents as the Cougars continue to strive for perfection in November and beyond.

Game grader

2023: 63rd out of 70 Power Four
2024 1st Bye Week: 13th of 70 Power Four (2nd in Big 12)
2nd bye week 2024: 13th of 70 Power Four (2nd in Big 12)

Game Grader measures statistical dominance and adjusts based on opponent's strength. The 29-point win over ranked Kansas State is one of the highest individual game scores of the entire season so far.

Undefeated BYU moved up to No. 13 in the 2024 Game Grader — behind only Iowa State among Big 12 teams — and reached its highest ranking since the 2020 season.

In eight games, BYU has outrebounded six opponents, won or overcome turnovers seven times, held six offenses below their season average and seven defenses exceeded their season average.

Opponent-adjusted attack per turn

2023: 69th out of 70 Power Four
2024 1st Bye Week: 45th of 70 Power Four (12th in Big 12)
2nd bye week 2024: 34th of 70 Power Four (8th in Big 12)

When the total offense statistic is presented in yards per game, it doesn't tell the whole story because, for example, 500 yards gained against Georgia is very different from 500 yards gained against Akron. Additionally, 500 yards gained on 80 snaps is less impressive than 500 yards gained on 50 snaps.

Instead, my measurements are evaluated per move and also adjusted to the strength of the opponent (defense). BYU continues to improve here after finishing second-worst in the Power Four in 2023.

In the first bye week, BYU rose to No. 45 and has jumped again to No. 34. Now, with a healthy running back room, BYU's running game has gained momentum. The rushing attack, quarterback Jake Retzlaff's agility, their explosiveness and their red zone efficiency (No. 8 in the Power Four) are all contributing to a significant one-year turnaround.

Opponent-adjusted defense per turn

2023: 48th out of 70 Power Four
2024 1st Bye Week: 10th of 70 Power Four (1st in Big 12)
2nd bye week 2024: 10th of 70 Power Four (1st in Big 12)

Second-year coordinator Jay Hill's defense has continued to perform well and is one of the most improved units in America. BYU ranks fourth nationally in creating turnovers and fourth in the Power Four in my opponent-adjusted pass defense metric.

They have held all opponents below their season passing averages and dominated the three top-40 passing attacks: SMU, Baylor and Kansas State. BYU held those three yards per game, which equates to a low completion rate of 53% and more picks (five) than touchdowns (three).

Remaining schedule and forecasts

With a perfect 8-0 start, it's time to take a look at BYU's path to a potential Big 12 title game and a playoff spot in November. The following ranks are from 70 Power Four teams, and the projection is where Game Grader would currently calculate the line.

in Utah

(No. 44 in Game Grader overall, No. 62 in offense, No. 22 in defense)

“The Holy War” was supposed to be the exact opposite, with Utah, the preseason favorite, now playing a “spoiler” role. Utah's offense has completely collapsed without quarterback Cam Rising, and their longtime offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig resigned two weeks ago.

Projection: BYU at 7.5

Kansas

(No. 47 in Game Grader overall, No. 19 in offense, No. 50 in defense)

Lance Leipold turned the worst Power Four program into a winner, but they suffered a nation-worst five one-score losses in 2024. That means they're better than their records, but quarterback Jalon Daniels has been a turnover machine so far, and that's cost them in the slump.

Projection: BYU through 14

at Arizona State

(No. 30 in Game Grader overall, No. 53 in offense, No. 18 in defense)

This is the next highest projected margin and will be a physical test. Head coach Kenny Dillingham said he modeled his program after Utah – physicality and strength in the trenches, complementary football, ball control, etc. – and made sure his team played solid football.

Projection: BYU at 4

Houston

(No. 57 in overall Game Grader, No. 60 in offense, No. 40 in offense)

Houston was the unanimous pick for last place in the Big 12, but they played good defense and upset both TCU and Utah. I imagine this will be a significant home-field advantage and an electric atmosphere at LaVell Edwards Stadium – especially when the score is 12-0.

Projection: BYU through 17

Big 12 title game against Iowa State

(No. 6 in Game Grader overall, No. 30 in offense, No. 25 in defense)

Should BYU go 4-0 or 3-1 in November, they will earn a trip to Dallas for the Big 12 title game. The only other undefeated Big 12 team is Iowa State, and Game Grader is predicting a field goal decision in this theoretical matchup.

The winner of this game automatically receives a spot in the College Football Playoff, a first-round bye, and a trip to the national quarterfinals (Fiesta Bowl).

Projection: Iowa State by 3