NFL playoff picture: Surprising Broncos, Commanders forward; Cowboys get hit

Ralph Vacchiano

NFL reporter

It's not quite halfway through the season yet, but the NFL's playoff picture is starting to take shape.

At least that's true at the top of the table, where the Chiefs, Texans, Lions, Steelers, Bills and even the surprising Commanders appear to be well on their way to a postseason berth. Everyone else is currently just fighting for their positions before a wild playoff scramble could break out in the second half.

Here's a look at the NFL playoff picture, including the teams that have the best postseason odds after Week 8:

NFC

1. Detroit Lions (6-1)

There simply isn't a better or more complete team in the NFL right now than the Lions. And they're riding high after beating the Tennessee Titans. No team has a better 1-2 punch at running back than David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. Jared Goff was nearly flawless as a quarterback. They have averaged 43 points in their last four games. They will be hard to beat and they know it.

Playoff probability: 94%

2. Washington commanders (6-2)

If someone doesn't believe in Jayden Daniels right now, nothing will convince them. On Sunday, he snatched victory from certain defeat with a 52-yard Hail Mary on the final play against Noah Brown. He also significantly outplayed Caleb Williams, who was selected one spot ahead of him in the draft, completing 21 of 38 passes for 326 yards and a touchdown and running eight times for 52 yards. He is real, and apparently so are the commanders. You have everything you need to stay in the race.

Playoff probability: 71%

3. Atlanta Falcons (5-3)

They turned the division around by beating the Bucs twice in the last four weeks – albeit narrowly each time. Kirk Cousins certainly has Tampa's number, as he threw for 785 yards, eight touchdowns and just one interception in those two games. If he and the offense can do that in some of their other games, they'll really be on to something.

Playoff probability: 77%

4. Arizona Cardinals (4-4)

It was a good sign that their offense finally got going with the 28-27 win at Miami, with QB Kyler Murray having his best game (307 yards, 2 touchdowns) and the offense scoring its most points since Week 2. I'm lucky they're in a division where no one is on the right track yet. They won 3 out of 4 but didn't look impressive doing it. And their defense is still a big problem.

Playoff probability: 32%

5. Green Bay Packers (6-2)

Yes, Malik Willis led the Packers to a win over the Jaguars in relief, but they know their long-term fate depends on the status of QB Jordan Love. He suffered a groin injury early on Sunday and played as long as he could, completing 14 of 22 passes for 196 yards and one interception. But he was pulled in the third quarter and Green Bay will now wait to see how long he'll be out.

Playoff probability: 68%

6. Minnesota Vikings (5-2)

They have lost two in a row since their 5-0 start, which is alarming since the last time they started 5-0 (in 2016), they finished 8-8 and missed the playoffs. To be fair to them, the last two weeks have been tough. They narrowly lost to the Lions (31-29) and then lost in LA just as the Rams were getting receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back. The schedule becomes much easier.

Playoff probability: 83%

7. Philadelphia Eagles (5-2)

After an unsteady start to the season, things are finally looking good again in the last two weeks. Their defense has started to play better under new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. And new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has relied on her strong ground game. Even quarterback Jalen Hurts looks like himself. He and Saquon Barkley are proving to be the dynamic duo everyone expected. After two wins in a row, they are hot on the heels of the up-and-coming Commanders.

Playoff probability: 77%

Looking from the outside in: The Chicago Bears (4-3) got a bad beat and fell on a Jayden Daniels Hail Mary in Washington. Their defense is good enough to compete as long as rookie QB Caleb Williams plays better than he did on Sunday (10 of 24, 131 yards). … The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4) are on fire offensively, including in the loss to Atlanta on Sunday. But they lost Chris Godwin for the season and Mike Evans for a month, and without their two best WRs, things could get tough. … It's a testament to Kyle Shanahan and her defense that despite all her injuries, she… San Francisco 49ers (4-4) are still tied for first place in the NFC West. But they will need RB Christian McCaffrey back soon, especially with Brandon Aiyuk out this year. … The Seattle Seahawks (4-4) looked terrible against the Bills and are now on the wrong track after losing 4 of their last 5. … The Los Angeles Rams (3-4) could be a dangerous team lurking now that they have injured receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back in the lineup. … The Dallas Cowboys (3-4)In the meantime, they don't look dangerous at all. The only good thing about their team is the connection between Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb, and that may not be good enough.

Josh Jacobs on rising after Jordan Love's loss to the Jaguars

AFC

1. Kansas City Chiefs (7-0)

They don't look like the juggernaut they once were, they could use a No. 1 receiver and something still doesn't look right with Travis Kelce. But they are undefeated and have a top-10 defense and offense, so doubt them at your own risk. They still have Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, and that's really more than enough to make them the Super Bowl favorites until someone takes them out.

Playoff probability: 99%

2. Houston Texans (6-2)

The Texans gained a much-needed lead in the AFC South by topping the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. However, they don't make it easy for themselves. They are such a balanced offense supported by a strong defense, but their red zone issues almost cost them. Still, CJ Stroud is just as good as he was as a rookie and the Texans have won four of five.

Playoff probability: 97%

3. Buffalo Bills (6-2)

They are what they have been for several years now – a great team capable of shutting anyone down, thanks in large part to an MVP-caliber quarterback in Josh Allen. They appear to be coming off a bad three-game road trip (loss in Baltimore, narrow loss in Houston, narrow win in New York against the Jets). They also made room in the AFC East. But all eyes are on their big home test against the Chiefs in three weeks.

Playoff probability: 96%

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2)

Give Mike Tomlin credit. His controversial decision to start QB Russell Wilson and bench Justin Fields certainly gave the offense a jolt last week. And they have a great chance to continue their momentum at home against the New York Giants on Monday night. They've now won two in a row, but it's clear their fate depends on how well this quarterback change works.

Playoff probability: 85%

5. Denver Broncos (5-3)

No one has done a better coaching job in the NFL this season than Sean Payton, who somehow led the Broncos to five of six wins after an 0-2 start. They're doing it with one of the best defenses in the NFL. But don't look now: Rookie QB Bo Nix just had the best game of his career (28 of 37, 284 yards, 3 touchdowns). He also has thrown just one interception in his last six starts. In the next two games, however, the competition increases significantly.

Playoff probability: 63%

6. Baltimore Ravens (5-3)

Sunday's disappointing loss in Cleveland slowed the NFL's most impressive run yet – five straight wins after an 0-2 start. However, it could only be a temporary setback. For some reason, the Ravens only handed the ball to Derrick Henry 11 times in this game (73 yards). The last five games should have proven to them that when he gets going, they do.

Playoff probability: 87%

7. Los Angeles Chargers (4-3)

The Chargers temporarily moved into playoff position with a win over the decimated New Orleans Saints. But they won't stay there for long if they can't get their offense going. Despite having Justin Herbert at quarterback, they have somehow only averaged 16.8 points over the last five games and have only topped 23 twice. That doesn't work in an offensive league.

Playoff probability: 68%

Outside teams looking in: The Indianapolis Colts (4-4) slipped out of the top seven when they narrowly failed to defeat the Houston Texans on Sunday. They won't catch the Texans in the AFC South and without some offensive improvements they won't stay in the playoff race. QB Anthony Richardson has struggled and his offense has averaged just 285.3 yards over the last three games. … The Cincinnati Bengals (3-5) I also have offensive problems. After being blown out by the Eagles on Sunday, they have averaged just 269 yards and 18 points over the last three weeks – embarrassing for a team with QB Joe Burrow and WR Ja'Marr Chase. But they are obviously capable of more, which makes them dangerous.

Tom Brady's LFG Player of the Game: Bills QB Josh Allen

Ralph Vacchiano is an NFL reporter for FOX Sports. For the past six years, he covered the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, he covered the Giants and the NFL for 16 years for the New York Daily News. Follow him on Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.