Nate Silver Poll Predictions: Are Pollsters Playing Favorites? Nate Silver says they are “misleading the masses” in the 2024 presidential election.

Pollster Nate Silver criticized other pollsters for manipulating poll results ahead of the 2024 presidential election. He accused them of recycling past results to keep the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris looking close. Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight, accused pollsters of “guarding” their numbers and specifically mentioned Emerson College in his criticism.

“I kind of trust the pollsters less,” Silver said on an episode of his weekly podcast. Risky business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova. “Y'all, every time a pollster says, 'Oh, every state is just plus one, every single state is a draw,' no! You are a real shepherd dog! You're cheating! You’re cheating!”

Silver's own model shows Trump leading Harris 55% to 45% as the election approaches. He expressed frustration that pollsters consistently showed close races, arguing that they were trying not to stand out. He suggested: “If you poll 800 people in dozens of surveys, your numbers won't all add up to exactly one point. You lie! You put your damn finger on the scale!”

Silver also criticized pollsters who avoid releasing surprising numbers, saying, “If a pollster never releases numbers that surprise you, then they have no value.”

In a New York Times editorial, Silver emphasized his skepticism about gut instinct in predicting elections, citing previous under-polling of Trump supporters that he said produced skewed results. He found that “Trump supporters often have lower levels of civic engagement and social trust, so they may be less inclined to respond to a news organization poll.”

Despite the polling issues, Silver pointed out that swing state polls indicate a close race, with all seven states within a point and a half. “It doesn’t take a genius to know that if there is a tie in every swing state, the overall forecast is a draw,” he said. Silver stands by his prediction that Trump will win over Harris, maintaining a 55% lead. He also accused GOP-aligned pollsters of always showing Trump by a narrow margin to avoid making bold predictions.

According to RealClearPolitics, Trump is currently ahead of Harris in the national and swing state averages, while the New York Times/Siena College poll showed both at 48%. But Silver urged caution and further review of polling methods in the final days before the election.