Mortgage demand is stagnating as interest rates rise ahead of the election

Mortgage rates rose last week for the fourth time in five weeks, leading to another decline in refinancing. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted index, overall mortgage application volume remained essentially flat, declining 0.1% from the previous week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) increased from 6.52% to 6.73%, with points on loans with a 20% decrease from 0.64 to 0.69, inclusive the processing fee) increased payment. This is the highest value since July of this year.

Applications to refinance a home loan fell 6% for the week, but were 84% higher than the same week a year ago, when the 30-year term was 113 basis points higher.

“After a brief spike in activity in September, when rates were nearly 60 basis points lower, total applications fell 27 percent, reflecting a decline in refinances. A large portion of the decline was due to government refinancings, which fell 12 percent compared to last week,” wrote Joel Kan, an MBA economist, in a press release.

The number of mortgage applications to purchase a home rose 5% this week and was 10% higher than the same week a year ago. Real estate agents have reported increased interest from home buyers recently as the supply of homes for sale has increased. Some potential buyers may want to lock in interest rates before market volatility occurs around Election Day.

Mortgage rates rose earlier this week. The average interest rate on 30-year fixed loans rose more than 7% on Tuesday, according to a separate survey by Mortgage News Daily.

“Expect the potential for volatility to remain elevated at least through the second half of next week, with the risk of significant swings on any day until then,” wrote Matthew Graham, chief operating officer at MND. “The riskiest days are this Friday, next Wednesday and next Thursday due to the jobs report, the election and the Fed announcement.”