More than half of US votes are likely to be cast before Election Day

WASHINGTON, DC – Fewer Americans intend to vote before Election Day this year than in 2020, but the rate is still higher than in election years before the COVID-19 pandemic spurred widespread adoption of early voting. Currently, more than half of registered voters (54%) say they have already voted or will vote before Election Day, compared to 64% in 2020.

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The latest results are based on a Gallup poll conducted Oct. 14-27 that examined when and by what means voters plan to vote.

During the election period, 20% of registered voters said they had already voted, another 34% planned to do so before Election Day, and 42% planned to vote on Election Day, November 5th. In a similarly timed poll in 2020, 36% had already voted at the time of the survey, 28% planned to vote before Election Day, and 32% planned to vote on Election Day.

Last month, 40% of registered voters expected to vote before Election Day, compared to 54% today. Gallup has observed a similar pattern in recent elections, with the number of early voters increasing closer to Election Day than at the start of the campaign.

Democratic voters continue to be significantly more likely to cast their ballot early than Republican voters. Currently, 63% of registered voters who are Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents have already voted or plan to vote before Election Day, compared to 47% of Republicans and Republican-leaning leaners. The 16 percentage point gap between Democrats and Republicans is similar to what Gallup measured in the 2020 election (74% for Democrats and 56% for Republicans). Before 2020, Republicans and Democrats were about equally likely to vote early.

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There will be more in-person voting available in 2024 than in 2020

The survey also shows that no matter when people plan to vote this year, more people will vote in person than in 2020 (67% vs. 60%). Accordingly, fewer people will vote by mail or absentee ballot than in 2020 (26% vs. 35%), when the election took place during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Democrats and Democratic supporters (35%) are twice as likely to vote by mail as Republicans and Republican supporters (17%). Both party groups are seeing similar declines in mail-in voting compared to 2020 – an eight-point drop for Republicans and a 10-point drop for Democrats.

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Considering when and how Americans plan to vote, the largest share of voters, 39%, plan to vote in person on Election Day. The next largest group is early voters who plan to vote in person (28%) or by absentee or absentee ballot (25%). Two percent of registered voters in the U.S. will vote by mail on Election Day, and the rest are either unsure when and how they will vote or have no plans to vote at all.

46% of Republicans and Republican leaners plan to vote in person on Election Day, compared to 33% of Democrats and Democratic leaners.

Republican and Democratic early voters differ in the way they vote. Republicans are about twice as likely to vote early in person (31%) as to vote by mail or absentee (15%), while more Democratic voters vote early by mail (34%) than vote in person before Election Day (27%). . .

High voter enthusiasm

Seventy percent of registered voters say they are more enthusiastic about voting than usual, similar to August (71%) but higher than March (56%). This summer's increase was largely due to Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents expressing increased enthusiasm after Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket, rising from 57% to 79% “more enthusiastic.”

Meanwhile, Democratic voting enthusiasm remains high at 77%, compared to 67% among Republicans.

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Overall voter enthusiasm is at the high end of what Gallup measured at the end of recent presidential campaigns, along with the 2004 (67%), 2008 (68%) and 2020 (69%) elections.

The enthusiasm among both Republicans and Democrats is similar to four years ago.

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Since Gallup first asked the question in 2000, measures of enthusiasm have shown a mixed relationship with presidential election results. Democratic enthusiasm advantages in 2008 and 2020 preceded party victories, while a Republican advantage in 2012 occurred in a year in which their party lost. Republicans also had a lead in 2000 when George W. Bush won the Electoral College. In other years, neither party had an obvious enthusiasm advantage.

Americans' attention to the election is also relatively high: 83% of registered voters and 77% of U.S. adults said they had “thought quite a bit about the election.” Both numbers are similar to those measured by Gallup in the last four presidential election years. Republicans and Democrats are thinking about the election this year in similar ways.

Harris campaign reaches more voters

More registered voters say they have been contacted by Kamala Harris' campaign (42%) than by Donald Trump's campaign (35%). The question asks about contact by email, telephone, in person, by mail, or other means. When Gallup asked the same question in the 2008 and 2012 election years, about one in three voters said they had been contacted by the major parties' campaigns, although Barack Obama's number was slightly higher in 2008.

A majority of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents (58%) say the Harris campaign has contacted them. By comparison, 40% of Republicans and Republican supporters say the Trump campaign has contacted them, which is at the low end of what Gallup has tracked in the past for supporters of the candidate's party. However, the 25% of Republicans who say they have been contacted by Harris' campaign and 31% of Democrats who have been contacted by Trump's campaign are fairly typical of contact from an opposing party's campaign.

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Implications

Millions of Americans have already fulfilled their civic duty and voted in this year's presidential election. Early voting options have increased in recent years, and the 2024 election could be the second in which more ballots are cast before Election Day than on it.

In an election environment that generally favors the Republican Party, the Harris campaign's efforts to engage voters — and Democrats' greater enthusiasm for the election — helped Democrats make this a competitive election.

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