Minnesota Twins Arbitration Dilemma: 1B/OF Alex Kirilloff – Twins

Alex Kirilloff was the 15th overall selection in the 2016 MLB Draft and hailed from Plum High School in Pennsylvania. He reached the majors in 2020, becoming the third player ever to make his big league debut in the postseason, playing right field in Game 2 of the American League Division Series against the Houston Astros. He went 1-4 in the game and his future looked bright for the 2021 season. Since then, he has experienced ups and downs in his career, marred by various injuries that severely limited his opportunities to play. He never played more than 88 games in a season.

Now, MLB Trade Rumors (MLBTR) estimates he will receive $1.8 million in his second of four possible arbitration years, meaning he has three more years of control over the team, including the 2025 season. Should the Twins offer him a contract or move on from the former top candidate? Let's look at both sides of the argument.

Why it should be offered
Despite a self-imposed salary cap and long-term uncertainty regarding their telecasts, $1.8 million is pretty negligible for the Twins. Furthermore, given his potential pedigree, if he were offered a contract and they later decided to move, I think he would attract interest from other clubs, making him a moveable asset. Heck, even Miguel Sanó has had some success despite his track record in 2024 – although his power potential is a bit different than Kirilloff's.

But if we focus on the Twins' needs, expect them to lose Carlos Santana as a free agent. Internally, José Miranda is the only other player on the active roster with first base experience and Yunior Severino is currently the only other option on the 40-man roster. One way or another, I don't expect the Twins to enter 2025 with Miranda as their full-time first basemen, especially considering he has had significant issues with left-handed pitching throughout his career.

Looking closer at Kirilloff's performance, he shows signs of being a good hitter when healthy and will only be 27 when Opening Day comes. He's tried to play through injuries so often that it's difficult to say when he was at or near 100% and when he wasn't, but in his limited use he has had eight months of above-average performance as measured by his wRC+ . Overall, he was a league-average hitter, slashing .248/.309/.412 with 27 home runs, 116 RBIs, 92 runs scored, and below-average walk and strikeout rates.

Typically, guys with draft and prospect pedigree like Kirilloff's are given a little longer leash to prove they can last in the majors. Like it or not, the organization is invested in Kirilloff, so signs of unexplored upside in him are taken more seriously than less promising players or young players.

Why it shouldn't be advertised
I'm really worried about his wrist and his ability to stay on the field in general. He failed to finish three of the four seasons he played and averaged fewer than 63 games per season. Furthermore, there was something…weird?…about his 2024 season in which he was optioned to Triple-A, never played after late reporting an injury, and then placed on the 10-day IL five days later was – where he remained for more than two months. Upon returning to the Saints' lineup, he was immediately injured and did not play for the remainder of the season.

If we look at it from a roster construction standpoint, he doesn't fit well with Miranda in a platoon role, as both hitters have had significant issues against left-handed pitching throughout their careers. Additionally, Alex Kirilloff has developed into an average defensive first baseman and an absolute force in the outfield. In other words, his biggest contributions will come at the plate, where he performs slightly below average when available. Overall, we are currently dealing with an underperforming first baseman who is expected to receive a million dollar raise in 2025.

What I would do
Disclaimer: I was a huge supporter of Kirilloff and a huge collector of his prospect and rookie cards. However, before writing this article and looking into Kirilloff, I had made two (wrong) assumptions:

1. He is a very bad defender.
2. His wrist injuries have affected his performance.

None of these things are true. Since his wrist injury, he's maintained a roughly average ISO of .153 and really shined in 2023, when he hit about 20 homers, 82 RBIs and a career-high .445 SLG – good for a wRC+ of 119. And as highlighted above, cuts he actually ranked as an average glove on the field with a 0.3 UZR/150 over his career.

So I think the Twins will have to offer him given his future pedigree and performance when he's healthy. Am I worried about the wrist and the checkered medical record? Yes. But he's still a young player with three more years of control over the team, and in the grand scheme of things, a $1.8 million payday won't be the reason the Twins don't bolster their bullpen or elsewhere can add. They have players who are expected to make a similar amount or more and are, in my opinion, more reasonable non-tender candidates. I don't mind letting him go through a trade, but I think the Twins would be making a mistake if they let him go for nothing.

What do you think? Should Kirilloff be offered and kept, offered and traded, or not offered?