Louisiana faces a serious threat today, with a tropical threat looming by midweek

The state of Louisiana is about to become the meat of an atmospheric sandwich that even Mother Nature finds difficult to digest. Our northwestern state cities, Shreveport, Bossier City, Minden, Winnfield and others, are at risk of severe thunderstorms moving into your neighborhoods today.

Cities like Monroe, Alexandria, Lake Charles and Opelousas are at greatest risk of a severe thunderstorm later in the day on Tuesday. And it looks like the southeastern part of the state will be seeing some bad weather too, but we mentioned a sandwich. So we count the cold front moving in from the northwest as a slice of bread, while to the south, in the Gulf of Mexico, there is our other “slice of bread.”

National Hurricane Center meteorologists have been monitoring an area of ​​unsettled weather in the Caribbean Sea for some time. This system appears to be strengthening and will most likely become a named storm later this morning. By the way, it would be called Rafael if it deserved a name.

The graphic above is from the National Hurricane Center. It shows the planned path of what Rafael could become. From this graphic you can see that Louisiana is right in the middle between the potential tropical cyclone and the approaching cold front. And while you might think that's not such a good scenario, it could actually happen.

The energy and “thrust” from the cold front will likely be enough to prevent “Rafael” from growing too much in the Gulf of Mexico. While forecasters expect the system to develop into a hurricane, they also predict that strong wind shear and cooler water temperatures over the northern Gulf of Mexico will “likely take some of the wind out of Rafael's sails.” At least that's the thinking.

Please note that the graphic above is an illustration of model solutions. These are not official forecasts. Have you noticed how the models all seem to stop in the middle of golf? This is an indication of how much the model solutions assume that cooler water and strong wind shear will influence the system.

There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the forecast for the next few days. Not only are there legitimate concerns about the direction of the potential tropical cyclone, but the threat of severe weather from the approaching cold front should not be taken lightly.

Check back with us regularly for updates.