Kentucky Wildcats Football: 5 Keys to Win Against Vanderbilt Commodores

We're back!

The Kentucky Wildcats return from a well-timed break and are ready to take on the Vanderbilt Commodores, who are coming off a huge win over the then-No. 1 Alabama.

Last week at home against Bama, Vandy started as a 24-point underdog and delivered an impressive performance, scoring 40 points against a stout Tide defense.

According to FanDuel, Kentucky is currently the 13.5-point favorite at home. The Cats need to focus on these five key areas to avoid an upset and a third SEC loss.

1. Include Diego Pavia

Pavia is having an incredible year and shined against Alabama, throwing for 280 yards and rushing for nearly 60 yards. He makes big plays when forced out of the pocket and has a knack for evading defenders. At just 5 feet 7 inches tall but weighing 210 pounds, he makes effective use of his size and agility. Kentucky has done well against mobile quarterbacks of late, but keeping Pavia in check will be crucial this weekend at Kroger Field.

2. Control the line of scrimmage

Typically, Vanderbilt has a hard time controlling the line of scrimmage, but this year is different. The Commodores are averaging 170 rushing yards behind Pavia and star running back Sedrick Alexander, who gained 64 yards against Alabama's formidable defense. Last week, Vandy's offensive line didn't allow a single sack against a Tide defensive line that will likely boast 2-3 future NFL draft picks. Kentucky has improved its line play since the game against South Carolina, but a poor performance this week could lead to another disappointing result.

3. Avoid penalties

Alabama's loss to Vanderbilt last week was due in part to its own mistakes, including penalties. Bama committed six penalties for 57 yards, two of them costly penalties totaling 30 yards, giving Vandy a 20-7 lead. Kentucky has improved in this area, but still averages over eight penalties per game of more than 60 yards. To secure a win this weekend, it will need to play cleanly and avoid costly penalties.

4. Brock Vandagriff

Kentucky's success will largely depend on Vandagriff's performance this weekend. While Vandy scored a pick-six last week, it was due to poor throwing and good defensive play. Vandagriff has shown improvement in his last two games and I expect him to excel again this week. Receiver Dane Key has accumulated 250 yards in the last two games and was impressive against Vandy last season, catching four passes and scoring a touchdown. I expect Vandagriff to throw for over 250 yards and a few touchdowns in this matchup.

5. Run the ball well

Vanderbilt has struggled in rush defense this season, allowing nearly 115 yards per game and nearly four yards per carry. Meanwhile, Kentucky has averaged just 151 rushing yards per game this season. For Vandagriff to excel, Kentucky will need to develop a strong ground game. I expect running back DSK to have a big game and contribute over 400 yards of total offense.

In summary, if you are better than your opponent, you have to play like it. By effectively passing the ball and maximizing possession, controlling the line of scrimmage, keeping Pavia in check and building a strong rushing attack, Kentucky should win this game handily. I believe Kentucky will emerge victorious from this matchup.

My prediction: Kentucky 38, Vanderbilt 14