Kansas State football's best chance to reach the College Football Playoff

MANHATTAN – The first College Football Playoff rankings are still a week away, and Kansas State football's dream of advancing to the expanded 12-team field is still very much alive.

However, the Wildcats still have a lot of work to do and the only sure way to get there is to keep winning.

At 7-1 overall and 4-1 in the Big 12, the Wildcats are currently tied with Colorado (6-2, 4-1) for third place in the league, one game behind Brigham Young (8-0, 5-0 ). ) and a half-game behind Iowa State (7-0, 4-0), which was idle last week. The only team guaranteed to make the playoffs is the winner of the conference championship game on Dec. 7 in Arlington, Texas.

If K-State wins its final four games of the regular season — this Saturday at Houston, followed by home games against Arizona State and Cincinnati and a trip to Iowa State on Nov. 30 — that should be good enough to make it to the championship game. Especially if BYU wins and secures first place.

With a record of 11-1, the Wildcats should finish in second place thanks to straight wins against Colorado and Iowa State. Their only loss to date came in the conference opener, 38-9 against BYU.

Of the four candidates with the highest probability of reaching the league championship game, K-State has the most difficult path ahead based on current standings. The Wildcats' four remaining opponents are 20-10 overall and 11-7 in the Big 12.

On paper, Iowa State has the second-most demanding schedule with its last five opponents (Texas Tech, at Kansas, Cincinnati, at Utah and K-State) posting an overall record of 23-12 and a record of 12-13 in the league. Colorado has the easiest schedule with remaining opponents sporting records of 14-18 overall and 5-15 in the Big 12, while BYU's records are 14-17 and 6-13.

K-State has won four straight games, but has played brilliantly in two of them. He fell behind 31-28 on the road against Colorado in the fourth quarter, and last week beat Kansas 29-27 on Chris Tennant's field goal with 1 minute, 42 seconds left. Overall, the Wildcats are 3-0 in one-possession games.

The College Football Playoff, which expands from four to 12 teams this year, automatically picks the top five conference champions provided they are ranked in the top 25 in the final rankings compiled by the 13-member CFP selection committee. The top four conference champions are seeded 1-4 and receive first-round byes, while the remaining eight compete on the site of the four higher-seeded teams.

The seven overall teams fill out the table in order of ranking. But that doesn't guarantee a team in the top 12 a spot if there are lower-level conference champions. For example, applying the new formula to last year's teams, No. 11 Ole Miss and No. 12 Oklahoma would both have been left out.

That's why the Wildcats' best chance is simply to win.

Arne Green is based in Salina and covers Kansas State University sports for the Gannett Network. He can be reached at [email protected] or on X (formerly Twitter) at @arnegreen.

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