Iowa as a swing state? The Iowa poll shows Harris and Trump in a close race

From staff reports
| Des Moines Register

Could the red state of Iowa turn back to purple as a rotating presidential state?

The new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll released Saturday evening shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by 3 percentage points in the state, 47% to 44% – a result that suggests that Iowa is in play and Election Day is getting closer.

But neither campaign has viewed Iowa and its six Electoral College delegates as winnable.

Harris and Trump have made repeated visits to this cycle's seven swing states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – where campaign and political experts have predicted for months that every candidate has a chance of winning every state .

According to Brianne Pfannenstiel, chief politics reporter for the Des Moines Register, neither Harris nor Trump have campaigned in Iowa since the presidential primary, and neither campaigner has established a ground presence in the state.

Why didn't the campaigns target Iowa?

It was widely assumed that Trump would sail toward victory. He won the state by 9 percentage points over U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton in 2016 and defeated national winner Joe Biden in Iowa by 8 points in 2020.

His campaign also spent 2023 building a massive structure in the state that delivered a 30 percent point victory in the Iowa caucuses in January, the largest margin in the 48-year history of Republican presidential elections.

How close are the contests in the battleground states compared to Iowa?

Among the seven battleground states, Trump's lead in Arizona, at 2.7 percentage points, is the largest difference in the Real Clear Politics rolling poll average. Harris has the smallest difference in Wisconsin, with a lead of just one-tenth of one percent.

Harris' 3 percentage point lead in the new Iowa poll is within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. The poll of 808 likely Iowa voters was conducted by Selzer & Co. Oct. 28-31.

What does Iowa bring into play now?

The poll shows that women, particularly those 65 and older who identify as independents, are leading the transition to Harris. Older women support Harris over Trump 63% to 28%, and politically independent women prefer Harris 57% to 29%.

Trump has a big lead over groups that form the core of his base: men, rural Iowans and those who describe themselves as evangelical.

Was Iowa a swing state before Trump's repeated victories?

Yes. That reputation was cemented with the 2000 and 2004 races, which featured razor-thin margins and reversals between the two parties.

Democratic Vice President Al Gore won Iowa in 2000 by about 4,000 votes, or 0.3%, over the eventual national winner, Republican George W. Bush. Then, four years later, Bush paid off again, beating his Democratic rival, U.S. Senator John Kerry, by 10,000 votes, or 0.7%.

But the state bounced back again in 2008, when Democrat Barack Obama took Iowa by storm. The freshman U.S. senator from neighboring Illinois had built a strong ground game against former U.S. Sen. John Edwards and Clinton, the early favorite, on his way to victory in the Iowa caucuses. Obama won a 10 percentage point lead over Republican U.S. Senator John McCain.

Then Obama won Iowa again in 2012, defeating Republican Mitch Romney by 6 percentage points. But that was followed by Trump's victory, which brought Iowa back into the Republican column.

So is Iowa's status as a red state turning purple again?

Even if Harris were to pull off a surprise victory on Tuesday and Democrats did well in the polls, it would be hard to argue that Iowa is anything but Republican red.

Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds won her second full term in 2022 by 19 percentage points. Republicans have large majorities in the Iowa Senate and House of Representatives.

A good night for Democrats on Tuesday could shrink margins, but control is not expected to change. And Iowa heads into Election Day with an all-Republican congressional delegation: both U.S. senators, none of whom are running for re-election this year, and all four members of the U.S. House of Representatives.

Analysts at Cook Political Report have rated the 1st and 3rd Districts as “switch,” but expect Republicans to win re-election in the 2nd and 4th Districts.

How close are the contests in the battleground states compared to Iowa?

What does Iowa bring into play now?

Was Iowa a swing state before Trump's repeated victories?

So is Iowa's status as a red state turning purple again?

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