close
close
  • Thu. Oct 31st, 2024
    • '
    Here's who's winning in the key swing state
    News

    Here's who's winning in the key swing state

    author
    3 minutes, 49 seconds Read

    Topline

    Vice President Kamala Harris is vying to become only the second Democratic presidential candidate to win North Carolina in more than 40 years. Most polls show her and former President Donald Trump in a close contest — but Trump has a slight lead, including in two new polls released this week.

    Important facts

    In a Fox News poll released Wednesday, Trump has a 49% to 47% lead over Harris among likely voters – and 4% chose another candidate – although his lead in a two-way matchup has narrowed to one point (50). % to 49%) shrinks, within the margin of error of three points.

    In a Cooperative Election Study poll, a large national survey supported by universities and conducted by YouGov (2,308 respondents), Trump leads likely voters in North Carolina by 50-48%.

    Trump leads likely voters by the same margin of 50% to 48% in a Marist poll and an Emerson poll released Thursday and is ahead 49.6% to 48.5 in a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll last week %, all within the polls' margins of error (3.1 points for Emerson, 3.6 for Marist and 4 points for Bloomberg).

    Trump is leading 50% to 47% in a Washington Post-Schar School poll released last week, still within the 3.9 percentage point margin of error, while a Quinnipiac poll of likely voters released Oct. 16 found that Harris leads 49% to 47%. a reversal of Trump's 49-47 percent lead two weeks ago.

    Two other recent polls also showed Trump with a lead: He was leading 46% to 45% in a Wall Street Journal poll released Oct. 11 that included third-party candidates, and he was leading 46% to 45% in an Emerson College poll As of Oct. 11, he was leading 49% to 48%. 10 after Harris led 49% to 48% in the group's September poll.

    The Cook Political Report moved North Carolina from a “Lean Republican” to a “tie” in late August and wrote that the state “looks more competitive than ever” since Harris entered the race, according to Cook's latest, released earlier this month Poll shows Harris and Trump tied after Harris led by one point here in August.

    Surprising fact

    If Harris wins the state, she has a nearly 90% chance of winning the election, according to political analyst Nate Silver's Voter Power Index, which found that Trump would have over an 80% chance of winning the Electoral College if he North wins Carolina.

    Important background

    North Carolina has voted for only one Democratic presidential candidate since 1980: Barack Obama in 2008. North Carolina's shift to the left is largely due to a population increase among potential voters who typically support Democrats – including the well-educated – particularly 5.6 % According to the Brookings Institution, the increase since 2020 has increased near the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill “research triangle.” This area is home to three major research universities – Duke University, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and North Carolina University – which have also spawned related industries in high tech and life sciences, making it the 10th fastest growing area in the country, according to Brookings . The overall share of North Carolinians with a bachelor's degree — a Democratic-leaning demographic — has also increased by 1.4 million since 1990, according to a study from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

    What you should pay attention to

    Whether scandals surrounding Republican gubernatorial candidate Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson could hurt Trump's chances in North Carolina. Trump endorsed Robinson ahead of a CNN report that revealed a series of racist and derogatory comments he allegedly made on a pornographic website chat forum before entering politics, including calling himself a “black Nazi.” Polls following the Sept. 19 story show Democratic candidate Josh Stein increasing his lead over Robinson to as many as 19 points in a recent Emerson College poll. A CNN/SSRS poll released on September 27 also found Robinson trailing Stein by 17 points and Trump and Harris tied, suggesting Robinson's scandals have not dented Trump's standing there. According to CNN, in the past, the demise of candidates who were not elected in the election has rarely affected the affiliated party's presidential nominee.

    Big number

    16. This is how many electoral votes North Carolina has after receiving one vote after the 2020 census. The state, tied with Georgia, has the eighth-most electoral votes in the country.

    Cons

    Despite voters' increasing Democratic leanings, Republicans hold a supermajority in both chambers of the Legislature, giving them the power to override Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper's vetoes.

    Further reading

    Swing state polls for the 2024 election: Latest poll results show Harris leading or tied with Trump in all battleground states (Forbes)

    Trump vs. Harris polls 2024: Harris leads by 6 points in latest survey of likely voters (Forbes)

    Similar Posts

    Leave a Reply

    Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *