HawgBeat Staff Score Predictions: Arkansas vs. Ole Miss

The Arkansas Razorbacks (5-3, 3-2 SEC) will play the No. 19 Ole Miss Rebels (6-2, 2-2 SEC) at 11 a.m. CT on Saturday at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville.

Ole Miss hasn't won in Fayetteville since 2008 and the Rebels will look to build on their 26-14 win over Oklahoma last week. The Razorbacks will look to play spoilsport after dominating Mississippi State 58-25 last time out.

“We’re pretty healthy,” Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman said Wednesday. “We know we’re going to play a really good Ole Miss team. Well trained. Coach (Lane) Kiffin, great football coach. His team, there's a lot of talent there and we're excited to have them here at home.” 11 p.m. on ESPN.

Arkansas holds a 38-29-1 lead over Ole Miss in the all-time series, including a 13-2 edge in games in Fayetteville. The Rebels went 27-20 on their home turf last season and the Razorbacks won 42-27 when the teams last met at Razorback Stadium in 2022.

The Razorbacks are seeking their seventh 4-2 or better start in the league since joining the SEC in 1992. Previous starts of 4-2 or better include 1995 (5-2), 1998 (5-1), 2006 (6-0). ), 2010 (4-2), 2011 (5-1) and 2015 (4-2).

Arkansas is a 7.5-point underdog against the Rebels (BetSaracen). Here's how the HawgBeat staff predicts Saturday's game, which will be broadcast on ESPN:

This is a game that Ole Miss cannot lose if it wants to make the College Football Playoff. With a matchup against Georgia looming, this game could easily seem a lot less important.

As for Arkansas, for the second time this season the Hogs have the opportunity to knock off a ranked team before a bye week. The last time they did that was Oct. 5 against Tennessee, a team with a similar makeup to the Rebels.

I think the Razorbacks can absolutely win this game and I wouldn't be shocked if they did, but Ole Miss has to win this game.

Ole Miss 35, Arkansas 28

This Ole Miss team is hard to judge. The defense is undoubtedly good, but the offense was seemingly…disappointing? This wasn't what I expected in the preseason, but the Rebels have mostly nailed it so far.

The question is whether Arkansas' offensive performance against Mississippi State was a slam dunk (I think so) and whether the defensive performance was a result of Arkansas playing down its opponent (not so confident here given recent trends).

On paper, Ole Miss should win this game. They are the better team and can compete well with Arkansas. But college football is a fickle thing, and this series rarely shows the predictable. In a hard-fought and potentially rainy matchup, the Razorbacks get the ball last and… other than that, the Rebels make one more big play than the Hogs and Lane Kiffin gets his first win in Fayetteville in dramatic fashion.

Ole Miss 24, Arkansas 23

The Arkansas Razorbacks have already defeated a Mississippi team with a win over Mississippi State this past weekend and now turn their attention to the Rebels, who always seem to give the Hogs a good game.

Taylen Green will need to repeat what he did last week and Braylen Russell will need to continue his strong ground game if Arkansas wants to bring home a win.

I like Arkansas' chances in this game and it's an added help that it's being played at home, but I haven't seen the Hogs have sustained success week-to-week since conference play began, so I'm picking this week against them.

Ole Miss 42, Arkansas 28

This game is hard to read. On one hand, the Razorbacks have had an advantage in Fayetteville recently when playing against ranked Ole Miss opponents. Dating back to 2014, Arkansas is 3-0 against ranked Ole Miss teams in Fayetteville, including a 42-27 win in 2022.

Then again, this Ole Miss team is probably better than the previous three that the Razorbacks defeated. Head coach Lane Kiffin sees the Rebels at 6-2 (2-2) with narrow losses to LSU and Kentucky.

Arkansas' pass defense will be tested with the Rebels' vaunted passing attack and the threat of Tre Harris. Ole Miss is no stranger to putting up points, but has struggled to score in SEC play, averaging just 24.0 points per game in conference.

This game will come down to a few factors: (1) Can Arkansas generate stops on defense, (2) can Arkansas execute in the red zone, and (3) can Arkansas take care of the ball?

If the Razorbacks do two of these three things, I think they win the game. The offense has looked much better lately, and the addition of Patrick Kutas to the offensive line could prove to be crucial to the success of the entire offense, as the pass protection and Taylen Green have looked much better when he was on the field.

I've wavered back and forth often enough. As difficult as it is to read, I have to choose Arkansas here.

Arkansas 30, Ole Miss 24

The Rebs and Hogs have had some memorable moments over the last 24 years. Who can forget the seven-overtime game in 2001 or Hunter Henry's 4th-and-25 play or Hudson Clark's three picks in 2020?

Arkansas always gets up to play the Rebels and I think this Saturday will be no different. Defensive coordinator Travis Williams needs to strengthen his unit as the Rebels are better than their in-state brothers Mississippi State and Jaxson Dart is one of the best quarterbacks in the league.

Taylen Green is getting better every week. Braylen Russell looked great against a poor defense. He will have a harder time breaking runs against a strong Ole Miss defense.

I hate that this is an 11 o'clock game because home advantage could play a big role. At the end of the day, I think Ole Miss has the intangibles and wins another close game.

Ole Miss 31, Arkansas 24

Mason Choate: 4-4 overall, 4-4 ATS

Riley McFerran: 4-4 overall, 4-4 ATS

Daniel Fair: 4-4 overall, 2-6 ATS

Jackson Collier: 5-3 overall, 5-3 ATS

Kevin Bohannon: 6-2 overall, 4-4 ATS

**CONVERSATION WITH ARKANSAS FANS ON TROUGH, HAWGBEAT'S PREMIUM MESSAGE BOARD**