Harris will not address his supporters as Democrats grow increasingly concerned

Vice President Kamala Harris skipped addressing her supporters in Washington, D.C., early Wednesday morning after former President Donald Trump won Georgia and North Carolina, the first two battlegrounds lost in the 2024 White House race.

Cedric Richmond, co-chair of Harris' campaign, told the crowd at Howard University that the vice president would not speak publicly until later Wednesday.

“We still have to count votes. We still have states that have not called,” Richmond said shortly before 1 a.m. ET. “You’ll hear from her tomorrow.”

The decision to remain silent coincided with a dramatic shift in sentiment among her campaign aides, supporters and Democratic officials as vote totals in battleground states suggested the path to victory was narrowing. Earlier in the evening, Harris aides said they believed she would win. At the end of Tuesday, they argued she still had a chance.

Panicked Democrats described experiencing flashbacks to Trump's victory over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016.

“That’s pretty concerning,” said one Democratic lawmaker. “I keep reminding myself that eight years ago, all the trends in the early hours were pointing to Hillary winning, and then she didn't. But obviously that’s not the return we were looking for.”

One veteran Democratic strategist said of the current mood over the party: “Have you ever been to a funeral? That would be a carnival compared to that.”

A Democrat also compared the atmosphere at a meeting of major Harris donors at a Washington, D.C. hotel to that of a funeral.

Harris' campaign manager, Jennifer O'Malley Dillon, insisted in an internal memo obtained by NBC News that was released ahead of the North Carolina and Georgia forecasts that Harris still has a path to victory.

“As we continue to see data trickle in from the Sun Belt states, we have always known that our clearest path to 270 electoral votes is through the Blue Wall states,” O'Malley Dillon wrote, referring to Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

“Those of you who were there in 2020 know this well: it takes time for all votes to be counted – and all votes will be counted,” she wrote. “This is how our system works. What we do know is that this race will only come into focus in the early hours of the morning.”

But hours later, a Democratic congressman from one of those blue wall states said it was very unlikely that the results would be positive for Harris in any of those contests.

“I don’t see a realistic path forward in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Michigan,” the lawmaker said.

At the Harris headquarters on the campus of Howard University in Washington, thousands stared at the screens, almost silent and stone-faced. No one waved the American flags that were distributed earlier in the evening. The mood changed from joyful and celebratory to worried and fearful.

A few dozen people in the crowd, visibly finished looking at the returns, began chanting, “Music! Music!” Moments later, a giant screen showing cable news muted and the DJ began playing rap music. Some of Harris' staffers paced back and forth with blank expressions on their faces.

At the same time, some Democratic campaign veterans recognized that Harris would have to climb the steep hill to win.

“I’m praying for a miracle,” said a former Biden campaign aide. “It’s all on the Blue Wall.”

With victories in Democratic-held seats in West Virginia and Ohio, Republicans are already positioned to take control of the Senate – barring an unforeseen surprise. And an NBC News exit poll on Tuesday showed the share of voters who identify as Democrats fell to 32% – the lowest level this century.

Meanwhile, a senior Trump adviser suggested Trump could make remarks about the race in West Palm Beach, Florida.

A second adviser told NBC News that they were hoping for more victories in the Sun Belt and that Trump's current narrow lead in Pennsylvania would provide a good backdrop to end the evening.

Roger Stone, a longtime friend and informal adviser, said Trump seemed “in great spirits and very optimistic” when Stone arrived at the West Palm Beach Convention Center, where Trump is expected to give a speech after attending Trump's watch party in March had participated. a-Lago.

According to a long-standing party fundraiser, sentiment among Democratic activists varied widely.

“They totally freaked out,” the fundraiser said. “How is it possible that we lose to this guy? This is simply malpractice.” However, he added that he still hopes Harris can pull off a win.

At the presidential level, no state had switched from one party to the other as of midnight, with Trump winning states like Kentucky and Indiana and Harris winning Vermont and Massachusetts, according to NBC News forecasts. Trump also won Florida, which has moved steadily to the right in recent election cycles.

According to an NBC News forecast, Harris won Virginia, despite some late Republican hopes that it might be within reach.

In addition to the White House, control of the House of Representatives was also at stake on Tuesday evening. But tight margins in the House, a series of elections on the West Coast and the possibility of slow vote counting suggested that deciding which party would win a majority could take time.

It is an ominous development for Democrats that the share of voters who identify with their party has reached its lowest point this century. According to the NBC News Exit Poll, 32% of voters identified as Democrats, compared to 37% four years ago. The poll also found that most voters this century identify as independent or “something else” (34%). The share of voters who identify as Republican has changed less, standing at 34% this year.

Supporters of the two presidential candidates were divided over the main issues facing the country on election day. These disagreements partly reflected what they focused on. NBC News exit polls also showed significant demographic changes in the two parties' coalitions.

Among the most significant changes: Latino men favored Trump by a 10 percentage point margin, 54% to 44%, after four years ago they favored 2020 Democratic nominee Joe Biden by a 23 point margin, 59% to 36%. had supported.

In a smaller shift — but a sizable one in its own right — Harris had a 25-point lead among Latino women, a decline of 14 percentage points from Biden's 39-point lead over Trump in 2020.

At the same time, Trump experienced a decline among suburban white women, with exit polls showing 51% of them this year compared to 56% four years ago. Harris also received a boost from older voters, with the over-65 group rising from 50% to 49%. That wiped out Trump's 5-point victory in 2020 among seniors. Additionally, older voters made up 28% of the electorate, up from 22% in 2020.

Most Harris voters rated democracy as their most important issue, while most Trump voters said the economy was most important to them. Overall, 35% of voters named democracy at the top of their list, while 31% named the economy and 14% named abortion.

Fifty-six percent of Harris voters put democracy first, while 21 percent named abortion as their top priority and 13 percent chose the economy. 51 percent of Trump voters saw the economy as the biggest problem, 20 percent said immigration and 12 percent said democracy.

Harris promised that she would restore abortion rights, which were restricted by the Supreme Court's Dobbs decision. Trump said abortion decisions fall into the hands of the states where they now lie, but he supports bans that exempt cases of rape, incest and danger to the woman's life.

One sign of how abortion policy has changed now that states can impose more restrictions is the fact that more Trump voters think abortion should be legal now than in 2020, according to early-term polls exit from the election. At the time, 26% of Trump voters thought abortion should be illegal. As of Tuesday, that number was 38%.

Overall, 51% of voters in 2020 said abortion should be legal in all or most cases. But now 66% say that. At the same time, the share of voters who believe abortion should be illegal in all cases has fallen from 17% in 2020 to 6% this year.

With North Carolina going to Trump, Harris' most plausible path to winning 270 electoral votes – and becoming the first woman elected president – was still through the “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, as well as the 2nd Congressional District Nebraska. Trump, the first defeated president to retake the White House since Grover Cleveland in 1892, would reach the magic number by adding Georgia and Pennsylvania — or Georgia, Arizona and either Michigan or Wisconsin — to his column.

Both candidates and their campaigns have expressed confidence in recent days that they are on the path to victory.

“The momentum is on our side,” Harris said at her final rally Monday night in Philadelphia.

“I think we're going to have a very big victory today,” Trump said as he cast his vote in West Palm Beach, Florida, on Tuesday afternoon.

Despite their success, 72% of voters in NBC News polls said they were either angry or dissatisfied with the state of the country, while just 26% said they were happy or thrilled with it.

There were signs of demographic changes in the electorate in early election polls. Trump's popularity declined among white voters while it increased among black and Latino voters. In 2020, 57% of white voters viewed Trump favorably, as did 38% of Latino voters and 10% of Black voters. This year, just 49% of white voters said they view Trump favorably, while his numbers among Latino and black voters rose to 42% and 14%, respectively.

As of Thursday evening, there were no reports of major, widespread problems related to voting, although hours remained before polls closed in many states.

The most noticeable problem occurred in Georgia, where bomb threats against polling places led to temporary evacuations but did not appear to dramatically affect voting. A dozen counties will remain open a little later to explain the pause, Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said.

There were no signs of major cyberattacks, which raised concerns after the 2016 presidential election. And the glitches in scanning or counting ballots were mostly minor and expected.

A software glitch prevented voters in Cambria County, Pennsylvania, from scanning their ballots early in the morning, but voting there was extended until 10 p.m. Additionally, more than 30,000 absentee and early voting ballots are being recounted in Milwaukee after officials noticed that ballot machines used were not properly locked.