Harris-Trump election polls show a huge gap between men and women

This election, poll after poll has revealed a massive gender gap – a significant trend that underscores the crucial role women could play this November.

Most recently, a Quinnipiac poll in Michigan conducted in late October found that 57 percent of women in the state supported Vice President Kamala Harris, while 40 percent of men did the same. Conversely, 56 percent of men supported former President Donald Trump, while 37 percent of women did. This is also the case again and again in nationwide surveys. For example, a recent USA Today/Suffolk University poll found that Harris had a 16-point difference in the support she saw from men and women.

“It's the battle of the sexes, and it's not a game,” Quinnipiac pollster Tim Malloy said in a statement. “In Michigan and Wisconsin, there is a glaring gap between the number of women who support Harris and the number of men who support Trump.” In Quinnipiac polls conducted in October in five of the seven key swing states, Harris had a significant lead among women, while Trump saw a comparable lead among men in the same places. (Quinnipiac has not released October results for Nevada and Arizona.)

Women supporting Democrats over Republicans is not a new phenomenon: Since the 1980s, members of the group have been more likely to support the party than men, and that political divide has only grown larger over time. This time, however, that divide could have a significant impact on the outcome of the election, given how close the race is and other demographic shifts.

According to recent polls, Democrats appear to be losing support among groups they have relied on in the past, such as black men and Latino men. These losses could be offset by higher female voter turnout, especially since women vote more often than men and have historically done so in larger numbers.

“Women’s voices will be crucial in this election,” said Katherine Tate, a political scientist at Brown University. “If Harris wins, it will be because women elected her.”

The gender gap is a sign of the progress Democrats have made over time

Women have now supported the Democrats by significant margins in several cycles. In 2020, President Joe Biden won 55 percent of female voters while Trump won 44 percent, and in 2016, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton won 54 percent of female voters while Trump won 39 percent, according to Pew Research Center. If the actual result is closer to what pollsters expected, Democrats could well maintain these margins.

Some of the gains among Democrats among women can be attributed to ideological shifts: More women across all age groups now identify as liberal than two decades ago, according to a Gallup poll released in February. And younger women between the ages of 18 and 29 in particular are among the groups who now identify as liberal much more often than before. Gallup found that in 2023, 40 percent of young women were classified as liberal, compared to 29 percent in 1999.

However, while the left is gaining women, it is only gaining a few men. Over the same 24-year period, Gallup found that the share of men who identify as liberal across all age groups has remained relatively unchanged: Only 25 percent of young men identified as liberal in 2023, up just 1 percentage point than 1999.

Women's shift to the left has been driven by a combination of factors, including opposition to misogynistic rhetoric from GOP leaders and allegations of sexual misconduct from prominent political figures – like Trump, against whom more than 20 allegations of sexual assault and misconduct have been made, including one There is a new accusation this week.

Social movements such as the #MeToo movement raised awareness of sexual misconduct and harassment in 2017. And after Trump's election, women became more politically engaged, organizing through demonstrations like the Women's March and running for elected office in record numbers.

Democrats' stance on social issues, including reproductive rights, and outrage over the Supreme Court's overturning decision Roe v. Wade in 2022 have also found favor with some women. Trump was responsible for appointing the judges who presided over the overthrow roeand has bragged about his role in it. Meanwhile, Democrats have established themselves as the party dedicated to defending reproductive health care.

Since the 1980s, many women have increasingly seen the Democrats as serving their economic interests, wrote historian Suzanne Kahn of the Roosevelt Institute for Time. This idea can be traced back to President Ronald Reagan's decision to cut welfare benefits such as Social Security and Welfare, a cut that disproportionately hurt women, Kahn wrote. And it has since been solidified by the efforts of Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton to pass legislation to eliminate the gender pay gap and establish family leave.

“Women believe they or their family may need government help or protection,” says Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. “Men think it’s a good day when the government doesn’t do anything bad to you.”

And Democrats were able to exploit the power of representation because the party also diversified. The Democratic Party itself has become more representative of women in recent decades and has been successful in recruiting and promoting female candidates, something that Republicans are still catching up to.

In the House of Representatives, for example, 43 percent of Democratic representatives are women, while 15 percent of Republican representatives are women. The party's efforts have also resulted in two women leading the Democratic presidential nomination, including Harris, which many Democratic voters have expressed excitement about.

Women's shift to the left has solidified their party affiliation with the Democrats, Lake says, and that could have serious consequences in this election cycle.

The two presidential candidates are currently tied in some swing state polls – and increasing support from women could put Harris in her place.

“In close races, the winning formula is for the women to win more than the men lose,” Lake tells Vox.