Forecast for New England: Record warm temperatures expected

An offshore high and an approaching low pressure system have funneled warm air from the Southwest into New England, pushing temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above average. The peak heat will be enhanced by an approaching cold front pushing through the area and helping to mix warm surface air with warmer air aloft – meaning the heat will be held near the surface throughout the day. It is also worth noting that exceptionally dry soil warms up very quickly, which also causes a rise in temperature today.

The day should remain dry for Boston, although a front will pass later in the day and clouds will increase in the region. Parts of northern and western New England may see a few showers surface, but it should only be a trace amount of rain.

Some precipitation simply does not reach the surface because the ground and air are very dry, limiting evaporation and draining moisture from any showers that form.

You'll notice a strong breeze again today, reaching nearly 15 mph in the Boston area, with gusts of 20 and 30 mph. The additional heat today compared to yesterday further increases the fire risk with fresh vegetation and moderately low relative humidity. Although progress has been made on active fires outside Salem, Hartford and dozens of other areas in southern New England, these conditions will make further containment difficult today.

The National Weather Service has issued a red flag warning for all of southern New England until 6 p.m., urging people to avoid outdoor open fires. The warning means the ingredients — heat, relatively low humidity and windy conditions — are present to spread existing fires or quickly start new ones.

Southern New England needs a good shower of rain to break our existing drought and help replenish parched soils and lower groundwater and stream flows. The region could experience light to moderate rain on Sunday and Monday, hopefully with enough moisture to overcome high pressure over the North Atlantic and bring measurable rain to the region.

This month may experience more dry than wet weather, increasing the fire danger in November and above normal for the season – a rare occurrence for this time of year.

Southern New England: There will be a mix of sun and clouds throughout the day, with temperatures rising to the low to mid 70s. A heavy patchy shower may drop a few showers this afternoon, but windy conditions are expected to be the most adverse part of today – with gusts of up to 25mph.

Western fair: Changing clouds with mostly cloudy skies in the afternoon. Highs in Berkshire will reach the upper 60s, while people in the Pioneer Valley will reach the mid-70s. A cold front pushes in during the afternoon and may bring a few sprays or light showers, but these won't last long. Wind speeds likely between 10 and 15 mph.

Cape and Islands: Feel windy when the sun and clouds are overcast. Highs will reach the mid to upper 60s with gusty conditions. The Cape could experience gusts of up to 30 miles per hour. There could be a dangerous sprinkle later in the evening, but that remains unlikely.

Northern New England: Pockets of sunshine between changing clouds. Isolated light showers or rain showers are possible later in the morning and into the afternoon, but these are likely to be rare. Temperatures will likely reach the low 70s, with only the far northern parts of New England stalling in the upper 60s.

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Ken Mahan can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Instagram @kenmahantheweatherman.